Emerson Pollster Breaks Down New Swing State Polling: Pennsylvania ‘Is Going To Be Very Difficult For The Harris Campaign’

On “Forbes Newsroom,” Senior Director of Emerson College Polling Matt Taglia discussed new pre-Election Day swing state polling showing an incredibly tight race in the battleground states between former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

The polls show an effective toss-up race in Nevada, Georgia, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, with Harris and Trump boasting 2-point leads in Michigan and Arizona, respectively.

Taglia said that Pennsylvania may be the toughest state for Harris to win among those that are statistically tied.

“Pennsylvania, I think, is going to be very difficult for the Harris campaign,” he said, citing early voting numbers. “We have seen strong numbers for Democrats in early voting. Our data shows that that those early voting numbers are overwhelmingly in her favor. However, Pennsylvania doesn't have the same early voting access. They don't really have early voting. It's just absentee. You can do in-person absentee, but it's not really the same.”

While Harris leads in early voting in the Keystone State, Taglia says the campaign should be concerned with turnout.

“It’s a much lower percentage of the population that takes advantage of [in-person absentee early voting], at least in a normal election year that isn't 2020. So we've seen lower turnout, early turnout in Pennsylvania. And so she's going to be really dependent on that Election Day votes, which we expect to be more Republican, definitely more Republican than the early vote and probably maybe even more Republican than I won't say more Republican than in 2020.”

Watch the full interview above.