New HarrisX/Forbes Poll: Harris Leads Trump By Just 1 Point—A Statistical Tie—As 10% Still Unsure

Topline

Vice President Kamala Harris has a razor-thin one-point edge over former President Donald Trump, according to a new national HarrisX/Forbes poll released Thursday, marking a statistically tied race less than a week before Election Day—but one in ten likely voters could change their minds.

Key Facts

Harris leads Trump 49%-48% among likely voters, with 2% backing independent candidate Cornel West and 1% favoring the Green Party’s Jill Stein—including voters who were unsure but leaning toward one candidate (the data includes people who have voted early).

That’s similar to a HarrisX/Forbes survey a week earlier, which found Trump with a 49%-48% lead including “leaners,” but a narrower race than shortly after last month’s debate, when Harris led Trump 52%-48%, not including third parties.

Harris’ lead is also 49%-48% across the seven battleground states likely to determine the winner, compared to a 50%-46% Trump advantage a week ago.

There’s still room for the race to shift, even with just days left: Some 10% of likely voters and 16% of all registered voters are still weighing their choices, including 14% of battleground state voters, three in ten independents, nearly a quarter of voters ages 18 to 34 and more than a fifth of Black and Hispanic voters.

HarrisX surveyed 4,523 registered voters and 3,718 likely voters, some 910 of whom were in the battleground states, between Sunday and Tuesday—the margin of error was about 1.5 percentage points.

Crucial Quote

“The race is a statistical tie and it's going to be a squeaker of an election. Trump has gained in the national vote, but Harris has narrowed the race in the battleground states. Everything is possible, including Trump winning the national vote and Harris squeaking through in the electoral college, therefore the race remains difficult to call from a polling perspective," Dritan Nesho, CEO of HarrisX, told Forbes in an email.

Further Viewing

Key Background

As Election Day draws nearer, the race between Trump and Harris is among the closest in living memory. Harris has a 1.2-point lead in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average, but Trump is narrowly favored in most battleground states—albeit with single-digit margins that could easily flip. In a race this close, turnout could prove crucial, as Harris leads among frequent voters while Trump has a large edge among so-called low-propensity voters. The race may also hinge on racial shifts: The HarrisX/Forbes poll found Harris with a 10-point edge among Hispanics and a 47-point margin with Black voters—far weaker numbers than President Joe Biden in 2020—but Trump’s 11-point lead with white voters is smaller than his 2020 advantage. Trump’s gambit to win over more Hispanic voters hit a snag Sunday when a comedian at his rally called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage,” drawing outcry from a litany of well-known Puerto Ricans, though its impact on the race is unclear.

What To Watch For

The gender gap—with Trump leading among men and Harris among women—remains a potent force in the race. “In the final stretch, Trump needs to focus on women and Harris on men, where each has a 10 point advantage over the other — one of the largest among the demographics,” Nesho said.

Tangent

Registered voters are slightly more likely to have a favorable view of Harris (47%) than Trump (45%), but both candidates are viewed unfavorably by more voters (48% in Harris’ case, 51% for Trump)—reflecting a starkly polarized country. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden’s favorability is just 38%, with 57% viewing him unfavorably.