Will Third-Party Candidates Be 2024 Spoilers? Here’s What To Know—As Trump-Harris Race Nearly Tied.

Topline

Third-party candidates are on ballots across crucial swing states, and as the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris remains a virtual tie, a few votes to smaller candidates may decide the difference.

Key Facts

Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (who has suspended his campaign), the Green Party’s Jill Stein, the Libertarian Party’s Chase Oliver and independent Cornel West have hung onto spots on the ballot in at least some of the seven swing states primed to decide the election.

Oliver is on the ballot in every swing state, Stein and West are on the ballot in most states, and Kennedy is on the ballot in just Michigan and Wisconsin, even as he’s tried to remove his name after endorsing Trump.

The third-party candidates are likely to get a minuscule share of the vote, but in an election as tight as this one, they could matter: Minor candidates picked up 3% to 4% of the vote in Economist/YouGov and Times/Siena polls over the last week, a greater vote share than the one percentage point separating Trump and Harris, while a CNN/SSRS poll of Michigan found up to 6% of voters backed minor candidates as Harris held a five-point lead.

Democrats are especially concerned about third-party candidates: Stein and West are running to the left of Harris and are often seen as more likely to take voters from her than Trump; the final Times/Siena national poll shows Trump leads 47% to Harris’ 46% with third parties included but a tie (48%-48%) if people are forced to say which way they lean.

RFK Jr.’s role in the remaining battlegrounds is unclear: Before he dropped out, he was seen as a liability for both campaigns, but polls show he may detract more from Trump with his now-lingering candidacy—for example, a Fox News poll released Oct. 30 showed Harris leading Trump 48%-46% in Michigan when voters are allowed to select Kennedy as an option (Kennedy holds 3%), but that number shifts to a 49%-49% tie when voters can’t select Kennedy.

Which Swing States Have Third-Party Candidates, And How Are These Candidates Polling?

• Arizona: Stein and Oliver are on the ballot. Stein holds 1% of the vote and Oliver holds 2% in a CNN/SSRS poll released on Oct. 29. In the same poll, Harris led Trump by just one point (though most polls show Trump ahead in the state).
• Michigan: Stein, Oliver, West, and Kennedy are on the ballot. Kennedy has 3%, Stein has 2% and West has 1%—adding up to 6%—in a CNN/SSRS poll released Oct. 30. In the same poll, Harris had a five-point lead.
• Wisconsin: Stein, Oliver, West, and Kennedy are on the ballot. Kennedy has 1%, and Stein has 1%, according to the CNN/SSRS poll. In the same poll, Harris led Trump by six points.
• Georgia: Stein and Oliver are on the ballot. Stein has 1% and Oliver has 1%, according to a CNN/SSRS poll released Oct. 31. In the same poll, Harris trails Trump by just one point.
• Nevada: Oliver is on the ballot; he has 1% of the vote, according to a CNN/SSRS poll released Oct. 29. In the same poll, Trump leads Harris by a single point.
• North Carolina: Stein, Oliver and West are on the ballot. Each candidate holds 1%, according to a CNN/SSRS poll released Oct. 31. In the same poll, Trump leads Harris by a single point.
• Pennsylvania: Stein and Oliver are on the ballot. Each candidate gets 1% of the vote, according to a CNN/SSRS poll released Oct. 30. In the same poll, Harris and Trump are tied, 48%-48%.

Crucial Quote

“This year third parties seem to be getting very little traction and are likely to play a very limited role, but [in] an extremely close election, where a few thousand votes in three or four states could determine the outcome, a third party that draws even in the tenths of 1% could make a difference,” Bruce Schulman, a historian and professor at Boston University, told Forbes over email.

Key Background

Third-party candidates have almost no shot at winning the election, considering the funding and popularity required to make a dent in the electoral and popular vote. Historically, no third-party candidate has won a presidential race—and they often underperform their polls, Pew Research Center notes. Even so, many of these candidates have put forth money, effort and even lawsuits to be included on (or removed from) the ballot. The candidates are often accused of serving as spoilers, a notion third-party candidates typically deny, arguing they give voters an ideological option that isn’t offered to them by either of the major parties. Alleged spoilers in past years include 2016 candidates Stein and Libertarian Gary Johnson, who got 1% and 3% of the vote respectively. Some argue Stein hurt Hillary Clinton’s campaign in 2016: The Green Party candidate won tens of thousands of votes in Wisconsin, a larger number than the margin that won Trump the presidency. Frequent candidate Ralph Nader is also argued to be a spoiler because of his 2000 campaign, where he earned a few percentage points in Florida, which George W. Bush narrowly won over Al Gore. The late billionaire Ross Perot famously ran for president in 1992 against Democrat Bill Clinton and GOP President George H. W. Bush. He landed about 18.9% of the popular vote, the closest a third-party candidate has come to winning in American history, and was widely believed to hurt Bush.

What To Watch For

Stein has emerged as a candidate of choice for some Muslim and Arab American voters unhappy with President Joe Biden’s support for Israel in its invasion of Gaza. Her support is particularly potent in Michigan (home to a large Arab American population), Arizona and Wisconsin, Reuters reports, citing a poll from an advocacy organization, the Council on American-Islamic Relations. In Michigan, 40% of Muslim voters said they would vote for Stein, versus 18% for Trump and 12% for Harris, CAIR said.