Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Trump Leads In Arizona And Georgia, Harris Up In North Carolina (Update)

17 Oct 2024 by Sara Dorn · Forbes

Topline

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris could split the crucial Sun Belt swing states, according to a trio of new polls that show Harris ahead in North Carolina and Trump leading in Georgia and Arizona—as the race remains incredibly tight less than three weeks before Election Day.

Former President Donald Trump delivers remarks during a campaign rally at the Cobb Energy Performing ... [+] Arts Centre on October 15, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)Getty Images

Key Facts

Arizona: Trump leads Harris 51%-48% in a CBS/YouGov poll of registered voters released Thursday, after recording a 51%-46% edge in a New York Times/Siena College likely voter poll last week, while Harris led Trump 47%-45% in last week’s Wall Street Journal poll. Trump is up 1.6 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Georgia: Trump leads Harris 52% to 45% in a Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday, after the latest Wall Street Journal poll found her up by one point, 46% to 45%, and an Oct. 10 Emerson poll showed Trump up one point, 49% to 48%. Trump leads by 1.8 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

North Carolina: Harris has a two-point lead, 49% to 47%, in the Wednesday Quinnipiac poll, while Trump is up one point, 46% to 45%, in the Wall Street Journal poll and holds an 0.7-point advantage in FiveThirtyEight’s average.

Pennsylvania: Harris holds a 50%-47% advantage (closer to four points when not rounded up) in a Saturday pair of New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College polls and also has the same lead in an Oct. 9 Quinnipiac poll, though Friday’s Wall Street Journal Poll gives Trump a one-point advantage, 46% to 45%, and the Thursday Emerson poll also found him up one point, 49% to 48%. Trump leads Harris by 0.4 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Michigan: Harris leads Trump 47% to 45% in the Wall Street Journal poll, a change from the Emerson poll that shows Trump tied with Harris and from Trump’s three-point lead (50% to 47%) in the Oct. 9 Quinnipiac poll—though Harris is still up 0.6 points in Michigan in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Wisconsin: Harris holds a 1-point lead in Friday’s Journal poll, while Trump leads Harris by two points, 48% to 46%, in the Oct. 9 Quinnipiac poll, and the two are tied at 49% in the Emerson poll. Harris is up 0.3 points in FiveThirtyEight’s average.

Nevada: The Journal poll has Trump up by 5 points. Harris is up one point, 48% to 47%, in the Emerson survey. Harris leads by 0.7 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Big Number

1.5. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by Real Clear Politics’ national polling average, while FiveThirtyEight’s average shows her up by 2.4 points.

Key Background

Harris became the nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his debate performance—shifting Democrats’ fortunes dramatically. Prior to the shift, polls consistently found Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of the seven (with the exception of North Carolina) in the 2020 election.

Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Trump Leads In Arizona And Georgia, Harris Up In North Carolina (Update)

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Key Facts

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