Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads In Latest 2 Surveys—As She Struggles With Latinos

01 Nov 2024 by Sara Dorn · Forbes

Topline

Vice President Kamala Harris holds a lead over former President Donald Trump in the latest two surveys of likely voters in the crucial swing state of Nevada, where an erosion of support among Latino voters threatens to hurt Harris’ chances of winning the state next week.

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally on Sept. 29 in Las Vegas.Getty Images

Key Facts

Harris is up by one point, 48%-47%, in an Emerson poll of Nevada likely voters released Friday (margin of error 3.6 points), while Harris leads leads Trump 51%-47% in a survey of likely voters released this week by the Cooperative Election Study, a massive set of nationwide polls backed by universities (933 respondents).

Harris also leads 48.8%-48.3% among likely voters according to a Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey released Wednesday (margin of error 5 points)—effectively a tied race since the poll’s margin of error is five points.

Meanwhile, Trump is up 48%-47% in Nevada according to a CNN/SSRS survey released Tuesday (margin of error 4.6 points), and Harris trails Trump 47%-46% in an AARP survey of likely voters released Oct. 22 (margin of error 4), while a Wall Street Journal poll out Oct. 11 (margin of error 4) shows Trump with an unusually large five-point advantage.

Harris has a 0.3-point average edge in Nevada, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average.

Nevada—which is the smallest swing state, with just six electoral votes—has voted for Democratic presidential candidates in every election since 2008, and President Joe Biden beat Trump there by 2.4 points in 2020.

Big Number

56%. That’s the share of Latino voters who identified with the Democratic Party in 2016, compared to 49% who do in 2024, according to a September NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll.

Key Background

Support for Harris among Latino voters will be crucial to her success in both Arizona and Nevada, where Hispanic and Latino people make up about 30% of the population and polls show she has lost support among the key demographic. Biden carried Latino voters in Nevada over Trump 61% to 35% in 2020, according to CNN exit polls, while Harris leads Trump 56% to 40% in Nevada, according to an October USA Today/Suffolk University poll of Latino voters. Harris is particularly struggling with Latino men, according to the survey that found 53% of male Latino voters ages 18-34 in Nevada support Trump and 40% support Harris, while 53% of Latino men ages 35-49 in the state support Trump and 39% support Harris. Immigration and inflation top the list of Latino voter concerns in Nevada, according to a USA Today/Suffolk poll, which found 37% said inflation was their top concern and 17% said immigration.

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