Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Latest Surveys Show Trump Up In Nevada, Georgia (Update)

22 Oct 2024 by Sara Dorn · Forbes

Topline

The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is virtually tied, with new polls Tuesday showing Trump with a slim advantage in Nevada and Georgia.

Former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at the Williams Arena at Minges ... [+] Coliseum in Greenville, North Carolina, October 21, 2024. (Photo by LOGAN CYRUS/AFP via Getty Images)AFP via Getty Images

Key Facts

Georgia: Trump leads by four points, 47% to 43%, in an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll of likely voters out Tuesday, while a Washington Post-Schar poll released Monday found Harris ahead by four points, 51% to 47%, following a Quinnipiac poll released last week that showed Trump leading 52% to 45%. Trump leads by 1.6 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Nevada: Trump is ahead by one point, 47% to 46%, in an AARP poll released Tuesday, and they’re tied at 48% in the Washington Post-Schar poll, while a Wall Street Journal poll released Oct. 11 found Trump up by 5 points. Harris leads by 0.2 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Arizona: Trump is ahead by three points, 49% to 46%, in the Washington Post-Schar School poll, consistent with a CBS/YouGov survey last week that showed Trump leading Harris 51% to 48%, though the Journal poll found Harris up by two points, 47% to 45%. Trump is up 1.9 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

North Carolina: Trump is up three points, 50% to 47%, in the Washington Post-Schar poll, while Harris had a two-point lead, 49% to 47%, in the Quinnipiac poll. FiveThirtyEight’s average shows him with a 0.9-point advantage.

Pennsylvania: Harris leads by two points, 49% to 47%, in the Washington Post-Schar poll, she held a three-point advantage, 50% to 47% (closer to four points when not rounded up), in a pair of New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College polls released Oct. 12, and the Wall Street Journal poll found Trump with a one-point lead. Trump leads Harris by 0.4 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Michigan: Harris is ahead by two points, 49% to 47%, in the Washington Post-Schar poll, consistent with the Wall Street Journal findings that also showed her ahead by two points, while an Oct. 9 Quinnipiac poll found Trump leading by three points, 50% to 47%. Harris is up by just 0.1 points in Michigan in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Wisconsin: Harris holds a three-point lead, 50% to 47%, in the Washington Post-Schar poll, a one-point lead in the Journal poll, and Trump leads Harris by two points, 48% to 46%, in the Oct. 9 Quinnipiac poll. Harris is up 0.4 points in FiveThirtyEight’s average.

Big Number

0.9. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in RealClearPolitics’ national polling average, while FiveThirtyEight’s average shows her up by 1.7 points.

Key Background

Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his debate performance—shifting Democrats’ fortunes dramatically. Prior to the shift, polls consistently found Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of the seven (with the exception of North Carolina) in the 2020 election.

Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Latest Surveys Show Trump Up In Nevada, Georgia (Update)

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Key Facts

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