Could Hezbollah’s drones change the course of the Middle East conflict?

How can a militia take on the advanced military of a regional power? Hezbollah has been significantly weakened by Israeli attacks in Lebanon in recent weeks, including one that killed the group’s long-time leader, Hassan Nasrallah.

But on October 13, the group claimed responsibility for a shock attack in Israel that killed four soldiers and wounded 60 people when a drone hit a military base in Binyamina, around 40km south of the city of Haifa in northern Israel. It was the deadliest Hezbollah strike on Israeli soil since the conflict between the two escalated with an Israeli ground incursion in early October.

Israeli military chief Herzi Halevi described the attack as “difficult and painful”. 

The drone entered Israeli territory flying over the sea from Lebanon and was monitored for some time by the Israeli military before disappearing from radar, according to Nicholas Blanford, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's Middle East Programs, in an interview with Lebanon’s L’Orient-Le Jour newspaper. 

The Israeli military later confirmed that the drone used was a Sayyad 107, an Iranian model that is now manufactured in Lebanon.  

It has a range of 100km and can be programmed to change direction and altitude frequently, making it very hard to track, the paper reported. 

‘Surprising’ Israel

The fact that Hezbollah is equipped with this kind of device means it “still capable of surprising Israel from time to time”, said Pierre Razoux, academic director of the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies, in comments to FRANCE 24 sister station Radio France Internationale.

Drones can be deployed once a diversion has been created, Razoux said. Hezbollah can launch rockets – most of which are blocked by Israel’s Iron Dome system – followed by drones flying in on complex routes at low altitudes.  

Read moreThe Iron Dome air defence system, Israel's crucial anti-missile shield

Hezbollah said in a statement on the attack that it had fired dozens of missiles at targets in the Israeli cities of Nahariya and Acre while simultaneously sending drones into different zones “with the intention of distracting Israeli defence systems”.

Israel’s Iron Dome has intercepted thousands of rockets since it was put in place in 2011. 

And yet, with this latest attack, “Israel has realised that it is not completely invulnerable and that even the presence of extremely sophisticated anti-missile systems does not stop drones getting through,” Razoux said.

Drone attacks ‘likely to continue’

“Drones practically didn’t exist ten years ago”, said Alexandre Vautravers, editor-in-chief of the Revue Militaire Suisse security and defence publication.  

But today, Iran supplies Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen with “some of the most modern equipment and arms” available.  

Even so, sophisticated weaponry may only be able to exploit small weaknesses in Israel’s armour; the country is ranked among the top 20 global military powers. 

But for Hezbollah, such inroads mark a “psychological win” that serves to serve to “terrorise” the Israeli population, said Jean-Loup Samaan, Middle East expert at the Paris-based l'Institut Montaigne think tank.

As such, he said, “these attacks are likely to continue”.

‘Counterproductive’?

It would be wrong to overestimate the extent to which drones can inflict physical damage on Israel, Vautravers said.

“The conventional balance of power is very favourable towards Israel and, in the framework of a conventional confrontation, it would be impossible to hit Israel effectively,” he said. 

Since October 8, 2023 Hezbollah, the Houthis and pro-Iranian Iraqi militias have tried multiple times to target Israel with drones, without causing significant damage.

The use of drones could even be “counter-productive” to Hezbollah’s aims, Vautravers said.

Attacks that cause significant damage in Israel give Israel's partners, such as the United States, incentive to provide it with the means of strengthening its defence. They also further unite the Israeli population and provide the army brass “with a pretext to intervene further” on Lebanese soil, he said. 

Along the border with Lebanon, more than 80,000 Israelis have fled following increasing hostilities with Hezbollah since the October 7, 2023, attack by Hezbollah allies Hamas. 

One of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s primary objectives in the conflict with Hezbollah is to allow their safe return.

Netanyahu pledged that Israel would respond to the attack in Binyamina. 

“We will continue to mercilessly strike Hezbollah in all parts of Lebanon – including Beirut. We have proven it recently and we will continue to prove it in the days to come," he said.

This article was adapted from the original in French.