Opinion: White House Down - Biden handed over elections to Trump in first debate

The debate held in Atlanta on a hot June night raised eyebrows over its unusual timing and the decision to bypass the Presidential Commission on Debates in favour of a network-hosted format.

"Houston, we have a problem!"

This frantic message echoed through Democratic circles after the first presidential debate. Four years of relentless attacks — from claims of dictatorship to doubts about mental and physical fitness, to fears of national ruin — culminated in this face-off between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. And in a surprising twist, the night left Trump looking unexpectedly more presidential than Biden.

The debate held in Atlanta on a hot June night raised eyebrows over its unusual timing and the decision to bypass the Presidential Commission on Debates in favour of a network-hosted format. Historically, Presidential debates, held in the fall, have significantly impacted election outcomes, with memorable moments like the Kennedy-Nixon debate in 1960 and Reagan's quip about his opponent's youth in 1984, shaping public perception and voter behaviour.

These debates often serve as a critical platform for candidates to present their visions, counter their opponents, and connect with voters on a personal level. In 2020, the debates between Biden and Trump were marked by interruptions and contentious exchanges, leaving many voters divided on the candidates' performances. Those two debates in 2020 helped Biden to project himself as the leader America warranted to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic and its aftermath.

But that was four years ago when Biden came across as a confident challenger eager to restore normalcy to the White House. Today, however, he struggled to defend his record and policies. His responses were incoherent and disconnected, reinforcing concerns about his age and ability to lead. This has sparked significant post-debate discussions about his viability as a candidate, with some analysts suggesting he should step aside in favour of a stronger contender at the Democratic convention.

In stark contrast, Donald Trump emerged as the perceived winner. His confident demeanour, sharp zingers, and assertive style resonated with many viewers, despite his statements often being factually incorrect. Trump's performance harkened back to his 2016 campaign, where his brashness appealed to a segment of the electorate looking for a non-traditional politician.

In Presidential debates, several basic principles often guide candidates' strategies and expectations. Both Biden and Trump knew they were speaking to the invaluable independent swing voters in five key states that will decide the outcome of this election. Let’s evaluate both candidates and how they fared.

Doing no harm

The first basic principle for any candidate is to avoid gaffes. In today’s debate, Biden did more self-inflicted harm to his campaign than Trump could have possibly caused. Biden came across as a frail and senile old man. At one point, his incoherence led to Trump landing a zinger: “I could not understand the last part of what he just said; maybe even he does not understand what he is saying.” No audience was allowed in the studio, but one could imagine Trump supporters across the nation chuckling and high-fiving in their living rooms.

On the other hand, expectations for Trump were so low that despite his factual inaccuracies, repeated deflections, and conceited answers, he did no harm. In fact, Biden’s weak performance made him appear stronger. Trump repeatedly spouted populist lies from his lectern, often ignoring the moderators' questions, and deflecting his shortcomings onto Biden. Yet, none of this seemed to damage his image. Instead, he emerged looking stronger, more confident, and more decisive

Winner: Trump

Presenting a clear vision

Candidates in these debates are coached to articulate their policies, vision for the country, and plans for addressing key issues. Biden struggled to make a lasting impression, partly due to the ineffective delivery of his rehearsed lines. He faltered, especially when touting or defending his record. Questions on inflation, immigration, and the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza presented opportunities for him to explain complex issues to voters and gain their trust. However, Biden tried and failed.

He was so poor in articulating his points that he ended up saying his administration “beat up Medicare.” He likely meant to discuss how his policies have reformed Medicaid. Trump seized on this comment, quipping, “He did beat Medicare — beat it to death.” Trump landed similar punches when Biden spoke about inflation, the economy, immigration, and foreign policy.

It was clear that Trump did not have a detailed vision and didn’t bother with policy specifics. He knew his supporters were not looking for a policy lecture. He successfully employed techniques from his 2015 campaign, presenting himself as an expert on issues like immigration, war, and climate, even if his ideas lacked depth. He winged it, and it worked!

The ability to communicate effectively and persuasively is crucial in these debates. Biden failed in this regard, while Trump succeeded.

Winner: Trump

Rebutting the opponent

Debates provide the opportunity to directly challenge positions, records, and statements. Effective rebuttals can sway undecided voters and reinforce supporters' views. Trump seized this strategy. Remember 2020 when Trump came across as annoying with his constant interruptions? Not tonight. He was measured. He waited for Biden to finish his answers and then challenged him on his record, from immigration to the climate crisis.

At one point, Trump boasted that under his administration, the US had the best H2O and cleanest air. Biden didn’t even challenge such a preposterous statement. He failed to fact-check Trump multiple times, allowing Trump to win arguments that made Biden look ineffective as a president. Biden missed opportunities to challenge Trump on his xenophobic ideas about immigrants, his plans for retribution if re-elected, his non-existent strategy to end the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and his approach to inflation and the economy.

Biden let Trump get away with such easy gotcha moments that it could make a high schooler cringe. No amount of post-debate fact-checking can match the impact of looking your opponent in the eye and calling out their lies. Debates are a chance to show voters what you stand for and how you differ from your opponent. Regrettably, Biden couldn’t do that. Worse, he handed the spotlight to Trump. It’s hard to imagine any undecided voter being impressed with Biden tonight.

Winner: Trump

Connecting with voters

One of the most crucial aspects of these debates is the chance for candidates to connect emotionally and personally with voters, demonstrating empathy, understanding, and relatability. This debate was the perfect opportunity for Biden to address concerns about his age and ability to govern, speaking directly to over 100 million voters.

However, when Dana Bash provided him with the chance to tackle this issue, he fumbled. Biden’s age has been a central issue in this campaign, with many Democratic insiders questioning his fitness since 2022. This was his moment to come across as an experienced elder statesman capable of decisively handling a range of issues. Instead, Biden appeared confused and disconnected, failing to connect even with his supporters.

In 2020, Biden often spoke about his deceased son, Beau, emotionally connecting with voters who had lost loved ones during the pandemic. Tonight, however, he seemed out of touch. His messaging on inflation, the economy, and jobs, missed the mark.

This is where Trump has honed his skills. He spoke plainly, making his points easy for voters to understand. He knew that people in swing states were unhappy about rising food costs and job availability. He knew immigration was a major issue. He addressed these concerns directly, even when the questions were unrelated. Trump spoke directly to the average Joe in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin, highlighting how his presidency was the best for jobs and the economy. Trump did not just connect with his base but also with the swing voters who will decide this election on November 5.

Winner: Trump

Staying on message

Candidates typically prepare key messages and talking points to ensure consistency and clarity throughout the debate, reinforcing their campaign narratives.

Yet, aside from discussing abortion and January 6, Joe Biden struggled to stay on message. In stark contrast, Trump provided a masterclass on staying focused. His message has remained unchanged since 2015: Make America Great Again.

His solution was simple: elect him. He promised a better economy, great jobs, a strong foreign policy with no wars, and limited immigration, which he claimed was the root cause of many problems in American society. Throughout the 90-minute debate, Trump hit these points repeatedly, insisting that the only obstacle to American greatness is Joe Biden.

Biden attempted to stay on message, focusing on inclusiveness, healthcare, women's health (including access to contraception and abortion), building international coalitions to tackle global issues, and immigration. However, every time he tried to cast Trump in a negative light, Trump managed to steal the spotlight.

For instance, when Biden highlighted his policy of lowering the cost of insulin from $400 to just $35 a month, Trump interjected that he had first passed an executive order in 2020, thus syphoning off some credit from Biden.

Winner: Trump

Handling the pressure

Campaigns spend weeks preparing candidates to think on their feet, handle pressure gracefully, and respond to unexpected questions or challenges from moderators or opponents. This is where traditional gotcha moments come into play. Think Rick Perry in 2012, when he couldn't name the federal agencies he wanted to eliminate, or Obama in 2012 when Romney stumped him on issues from the economy to Russia.

Trump was undeterred; he showed up ready to fight. He successfully deflected questions about January 6 by highlighting his track record as President and gave a non-answer when pressed about accepting the results of the upcoming elections.

In contrast, Biden struggled under the pressure of being the incumbent. His performance was so poor that it was hard to remember there was a convicted felon on the debate stage, and Biden couldn’t even point out who it was! Bogged down by the weight of expectations, Biden never recovered.

Winner: Trump

The impact of this debate on the upcoming election cannot be understated. With Trump leveraging his characteristic style to dominate the narrative, and Biden faltering in his responses, the debate has sparked a renewed conversation about the direction of the Democratic campaign. The coming months will be crucial as both candidates refine their strategies and prepare for the subsequent debates, traditionally held closer to the election in September and October.

This debate may prove to be a turning point in this election cycle. As history has shown, debates can significantly influence public perception and electoral outcomes, and this recent exchange between Biden and Trump is no exception. The key takeaway is the importance of clear communication, relatability, and the ability to connect with voters — traits that Trump displayed effectively, and Biden struggled to convey.

(Rohit Sharma is an award-winning journalist residing in Washington DC)

(Views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author)