Seahawks at Falcons: What to watch, plus Bob Condotta’s prediction

19 Oct 2024, 09:57 by Bob Condotta · The Seattle Times

Week 7: Seahawks at Falcons

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

TV: KCPQ-13 in Seattle with Kenny Albert (play-by-play), Jonathan Vilma (analyst) and Megan Olivi (sidelines).

Most recent game in series: Seattle holds a 12-7 lead in the all-time series but the Falcons won the game, a 37-23 victory in Seattle on Sept. 25, 2022. Seattle has won all three regular-season games played in Atlanta since 2007, including a 38-25 victory in 2020.

Point spread: Falcons by 3 points (via VegasInsider).

Key injuries: The Seahawks will be without what were three of their five opening-day starters in the secondary — cornerbacks Tre Brown and Riq Woolen and safety Rayshawn Jenkins. They’ll also be without right tackle Stone Forsythe, who started the last five games. It’s somewhat unclear exactly how Seattle will divvy up the snaps in the secondary, though K’Von Wallace will likely start at safety and rookie Nehemiah Pritchett and Coby Bryant will take on larger roles at corner and safety/nickel, respectively. Rookie Michael Jerrell will get his first start — and first career NFL snaps — in place of Forsythe. The Falcons will be without starting inside linebacker Troy Andersen, missing his third straight game with a knee injury and outside linebacker Lorenzo Carter. It’s also unclear if starting safety Justin Simmons (hamstring) will play.

Last week’s games: The Seahawks fell to 3-3 with a 36-24 loss to the 49ers last Thursday while Atlanta improved to 4-2 with a 38-20 win at Carolina Sunday.

The big story: The Seahawks are attempting to snap a three-game losing streak and keep pace in the NFC West with the 49ers, who host the undefeated and defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs Sunday.

Key matchup

Seahawks offensive line vs. Falcons’ pass rush

Seattle’s offensive line situation seems ominous. The Seahawks have had spurts of playing well up front but haven’t jelled for an entire game just yet, especially on the right side. And now Jerrell has to step in for his first NFL game on the road playing alongside right guard Anthony Bradford, who may again split time with rookie Christian Haynes.

But if there’s an opportune team to make a debut against it may be Atlanta, which statistically features as bad of a pass rush as there is in the NFL.

The Falcons have just five sacks in six games, which according to the Action Network Betting Primer is tied for the fewest of any team through six games since the Rams had just four in 2014.

Atlanta also has just the 27^th best pass-rush win rate according to ESPN, as well as only the 28^th best run-stop win rate.

The Falcons do have two veterans who at least in name will be a challenge — end Matthew Judon, the former Raven and New England standout who has just 1.5 sacks but ranks 20^th in ESPN”s pass-rush win rate, and tackle Grady Jarrett, who also has 1.5 sacks and ranks 19^th in pass-rush win rate.

If Seattle can contain those two, the Seahawks could have a good day on offense.

Key players

Safeties Julian Love and K’Von Wallace

Seattle’s safeties already figured to be in the spotlight as the Seahawks need better play out of that group to prevent big plays and force more turnovers — each key issues in the three-game losing streak.

But now the Seahawks will also be without Jenkins for at least four games with a hand injury. That will put even more of the onus on Love to be the leader in the back end, with Wallace likely stepping in to Jenkins’ spot.

Seattle also will be more vulnerable on the perimeter with Brown and Woolen out. So Love/Wallace and Bryant, if he sees some time at safety, need to shore up the middle especially against an Atlanta offense that presents some challenges. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has thrown for 970 yards the last three games, most in the NFL by one yard for Seattle’s Geno Smith. And running back Tyler Allgeier is one of the more difficult to bring down — he broke nine tackles Sunday against Carolina, most of any player last week via Pro Football Focus, and ranks fifth for the season with 3.9 yards after contact per rushing attempt.

Key stat

Turnover margin

The Seahawks have forced just one turnover in the last five games — the fumble at the goal line by the Giants that was returned for a 102-yard touchdown by Jenkins. That’s led to Seattle currently holding a minus-six turnover margin for the season, worse than all but four other teams, having lost 10 turnovers while getting just four.

Seahawks players this week noted that their opponents have actually had eight fumbles to Seattle’s six — but the Seahawks have recovered only two.

But the Seahawks also just haven’t forced opponents into enough long third downs and other situations when offenses are more prone to make mistakes.

Three other things to watch

Can the Seahawks get the running game going for good?

While the Seahawks are 29^th in the NFL in rushing yards (579) they are 14^th in rushing yards per attempt (4.6), indicating that they’ve had some success running — they just need to do it more.

That doesn’t necessarily mean just calling more running plays to call more running plays, though, but also being in more situations when it makes sense — meaning, mostly, not falling behind quickly, as the Seahawks have done the past three games.

Atlanta is allowing 4.4 per attempt, 13^th best, and Seattle having to go with a rookie at right tackle will add to the challenge. But the best thing the Seahawks can do against the Falcons is run often and well.

Can the Seahawks cut down on their penalties?

The biggest self-inflicted wound the Seahawks keep giving themselves is penalties. The Seahawks are tied for fifth with 47 penalties, which includes 17 per-snap penalties, tied for 10^th.

And it’s an issue that’s gotten worse as the season has progressed. Seattle committed six in each of its first two games but has committed nine or more in three of the last four games. Seattle is averaging 7.83 accepted penalties per game compared to the league average of 6.57, according to NFLpenalties.com. The Seahawks are sadly proving not good enough just yet to overcome those kinds of errors.

Will the defensive line additions pay off?

Seattle’s shaky run defense, allowing 5.0 per attempt — worse than all but four other teams — will get a test from Atlanta’s running back tandem of Allgeier (283 yards, 5.5 per attempt) and Bijan Robinson (380, 4.6).

But while the Seahawks will be short-handed in the back end, they’ll hope to make up for it by getting first-round pick Byron Murphy II back after missing the last three games, and adding veteran Roy Robertson-Harris, a 6-5, 290-pounder acquired in a trade this week from Jacksonville. Their addition will also allow Seattle to use some of its other defensive ends and tackles (such as Dre’Mont Jones, who can go back to playing primarily on the edge) in their more preferred roles.

Prediction

Falcons 27, Seahawks 23

The Seahawks said all the right things this week in the wake of a three-game losing streak, and there’s no reason to think they won’t give a good effort. But the issues in the back end could be too much to overcome against Cousins and a solid receiving corps.