What to watch for when Seahawks host Giants, plus Bob Condotta’s prediction

05 Oct 2024, 09:00 by Bob Condotta · The Seattle Times

Week 5: New York Giants at Seahawks

When: Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Where: Lumen Field, Seattle.

TV: CBS with Andrew Catalon (play-by-play), Jason McCourty (analyst) and AJ Ross (sidelines).

Most recent game in series: This is the third straight season the two have played. Seattle won each — 27-13 in 2022 at Lumen Field and 24-3 last Oct. 2 in New Jersey, a game in which the Seahawks had 11 sacks and Devon Witherspoon returned an interception 97 yards for a touchdown.

Point spread: Seahawks by 7 (via VegasInsider).

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Key injuries: Seattle ruled out only one player on its 53-man roster — defensive lineman Byron Murphy II (hamstring). The Giants ruled out leading receiver Malik Nabers (concussion) and listed leading rusher Devin Singletary (groin) as doubtful.

Last week’s games: The Seahawks fell to 3-1 with a 42-29 loss at Detroit Monday night. The Giants fell to 1-3 with a 20-15 loss to Dallas last Thursday.

The big story: With a win the Seahawks are assured of staying at least a game in front in the NFC West ahead of a showdown with the 49ers Thursday night at Lumen Field. A win would also get Seattle off to a good start in what is a key stretch of the season in which the Seahawks play four of their next five games at home.

Key matchup

Seahawks offensive line vs. Giants’ front four

The Giants’ overall defensive numbers don’t stand out much — New York is 12^th in total defense at 311.8 yards per game allowed. But a struggling offense doesn’t help, and those numbers may not illustrate how stout the Giants’ front is.

“They’re really good,’’ Seahawks offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb said this week of Giants front that keys a defense that has 15 sacks, third in the NFL.

Two who specifically stand out are tackle Dexter Lawrence, named this week to Pro Football Focus’ All-Pro team for the first quarter of the season with 18 charted pressures, and edge rusher Brian Burns. Third-year player Kayvon Thibodeaux also has his moments.

“Across the board, I’d say as far as all four of them, this is the best front we’ll face,’’ Grubb said. “I think there really isn’t a resting spot, if you will, on the offensive line this week at any given point.’’

Lawrence’s battles with Seattle’s interior of center Connor Williams and guards Anthony Bradford/Christian Haynes on the right and Laken Tomlinson on the left will be particularly pivotal.

Key player

QB Geno Smith

We could maybe just name Smith every week at this point given the way he is playing, guiding a Seattle offense that leads the NFL in passing yards this week at 280.8 per game. But against a team scoring just 15 points per game — 29^th in the NFL — and missing what might be its two best skill players, Smith’s value may be even more pronounced.

Smith has led Seattle to 23 points or more in each of its first four games, an average of 25.5 that is ninth in the NFL, while completing 72.3% of his passes. The only negative has been four interceptions, though two came on tipped passes and another on a desperation pass in the final minute against the Lions. Another similar performance, but without the turnovers, could lead to a comfortable win.

Smith will have some chances at big plays, as well, as the Giants are one of the more aggressive defenses in the league ranking 10^th in blitz rate, bringing pressure 34% of snaps.

Key stat

Red zone defense

The Seahawks entered last week among the best in the NFL in red zone defense, allowing touchdowns on just three of 10 drives inside the 20. That proved particularly critical in escaping New England with a win when the Pats scored TDs on just two of four drives inside the 20, and in staying out of danger against Miami, holding the Dolphins to just a lone field goal on two drives inside the 20.

But those tables turned quickly Monday when the Lions scored TDs all five times they got inside the 20. The Giants’ offense is just 20^th in red zone scoring, getting TDs on six of 12 drives inside the 20. That includes all three in their only win against Cleveland, 21-15. The Giants are 3-of-9 scoring TDs in the red zone in their three losses.

Three other things to watch

The right guard rotation

The Seahawks last week rotated Bradford with rookie Haynes throughout the game, each getting two series at a time.

While Seattle hopes to eventually land on a full-time starter, a similar rotation could be at play this week as the Seahawks feel both players continue to deserve a chance to compete for the job. They also feel the rotation worked well against the Lions.

“I thought they both had some really good points,’’ Grubb said. “I thought there was a couple points there where both of them played their best football of the year, so I think the competitive spirit is helping that.’’

Witherspoon redux?

Seattle’s win over the Giants a year ago marked the breakout for Witherspoon, who also had seven tackles and two sacks along with his pick-six, all good enough to earn NFC Defensive Player of the Week honors in what was just his third career game.

Witherspoon’s off to a solid start so far this season, though he and the Seahawks might like some more big plays. Witherspoon hasn’t had an interception since the Giants game and has only one pass defense this season and no sacks and one QB hit in 13 pass rush snaps, via Pro Football Focus.

No better time or opponent to break out once again.

A full pass rush?

With only Murphy certain to be out, the Seahawks could finally have their full complement of edge rushers available for the first time this season. And really, for the first time since Uchenna Nwosu suffered a season-ending pec injury against Arizona last Oct. 22.

Boye Mafe also missed the Detroit game with a knee issue, meaning Seattle had to start listed backups at each edge rusher spot, including practice squad call-up Tyus Bowser, who earlier this week was signed away by Miami.

Seattle Sunday could finally start Nwosu opposite Mafe while also mixing in second-year vet Derick Hall, whose four sacks leads the team.

Seattle also should have defensive end Leonard Williams back to wreak havoc on the interior, and also allow Dre’Mont Jones to play more on the outside. He played more inside against Detroit with Williams and Murphy sidelined.

Despite not being at full strength up front for any game all season, Seattle has 14 sacks, ranking tied for fourth in the NFL. Now healthier and going against a less-than-stellar Giants offensive line, Seattle’s pass rush could have a good day.

Prediction

Seahawks 23, Giants 9

An already struggling Giants team that will be without its most dynamic playmaker in Nabers seems like the perfect opponent for Seattle to face coming off a tough loss on a short week. New York’s defensive front could make the game look ugly at times but Smith should be able to create a few big plays to allow Seattle to eventually pull away.