Odds, horse-by-horse analysis for Breeders’ Cup Classic

Michael “The Wizard” Kipness has been a professional horse racing handicapper since 1986. He has been making selections and wagers for the Breeders’ Cup every year since.

Kipness analyzes Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Classic, designating each horse as a contender or pretender.

Full card selections and wagering strategies for the Breeders’ Cup, which takes place Friday and Saturday at Del Mar, are available at Wizardraceandsports.com.

Post position, horse, jockey, morning-line odds:

1. Forever Young, Sakai, 6-1

Top class Japanese invader has won six of his seven starts with his lone defeat coming in this year’s Kentucky Derby by just a head. His Achilles’ heel is his slow starts, but if he’s able to break with the field from the rail, he will be closing with a flourish late. Contender.

2. Highland Falls, Saez, 20-1

This gem of consistency exits a career-best race, winning a Grade 1 stake at this distance at Saratoga. Has good tactical speed and a top trainer in Brad Cox, but faces huge odds. Pretender.

3. City of Troy, Moore, 5-2

If the Breeders’ Cup Classic were run on the turf, he would be a lock to win. But it’s on dirt, a surface he’s yet to run on. Winner of six of his seven starts, he’s proven to be top-shelf for world class horseman Aidan O’Brien. Worked recently in company over a dirt surface overseas to simulate Saturday’s surface at Del Mar and appeared to handle it well. O’Brien has yet to win the Classic in 17 attempts, but several have run very well in defeat. Maybe this is the year he earns his first victory. Contender.

4. Mixto, Frey, 30-1

Upset the field in the weak renewal of the Grade 1 Pacific Classic over this course and distance last time out. Overmatched here. Pretender.

5. Senor Buscador, Rosario, 30-1

Winless in four starts at this distance and not in good form. Pretender.

6. Derma Sotogake, Lemaire, 20-1

Has but a single win in seven tries over 2023-24 but managed a fast closing second to White Abarrio in the 2023 edition of the Classic at Santa Anita. He’ll be equipped with blinkers, and he posted a stellar workout over the Del Mar surface. Contender.

7. Ushba Tesoro, Kawada, 12-1

This 7-year-old warrior always runs his race and is always competitive in Grade 1 company. He finished well in fifth from too far back in this race in 2023. Contender.

8. Pyrenees, Hernandez, 30-1

Beaten easily by rival Highland Falls last out. Does not class up with these. Pretender.

9. Fierceness, Velazquez, 3-1

Fierceness is an enigma wrapped in a mystery. He’s demonstrated the ability to crush rivals. In other races, he has flat-out disappointed. His previous two efforts have been stellar, but he faces seasoned elders in the Classic. Will need his absolute best here. Outside post helps. Contender.

10. Tapit Trice, Irad Ortiz, 30-1

Had to go all out to defeat just three rivals last time out. Overmatched. Pretender.

11. Sierra Leone, Prat, 12-1

Always runs his race, always drifts in and sometimes into rivals, always promises but has yet to deliver. If one day he can put it all together, he could win a race like this. Could this be the day? Great rider on. Pretender.

12. Arthur’s Ride, Alvarado, 15-1

Gray speedster will be sent right out to the lead but is expected to tire in the stretch. Only quality win was in the Whitney in the mud. Far tougher task on a dry track Saturday facing far tougher. Pretender.

13. Newgate, Dettori, 20-1

Clearly overmatched breaking from a tough outside post. Blinkers go on because he tends to lose focus in the stretch. Pretender.

14. Next, Machado, 8-1

Looks to win his eighth race in a row after several blowout victories, but he’s been feasting on far weaker opposition at marathon distances. Cuts back and meets far tougher foes here. Will be stalking Arthur’s Ride early. He must wear that one down and hold off the closers. Not impossible for a 6-year-old who has had a magical year. Contender.

Up next

What: Breeders' Cup Classic

When: 2:41 p.m. Saturday (post time)

Where: Del Mar Racetrack, Del Mar, Calif.

TV: NBC

Morning-line favorite: City of Troy, 5-2