NBA betting preview: Pros, public at odds over Knicks, 76ers

The Boston Celtics are the clear favorites to become the first team since the 2017-18 Golden State Warriors to win back-to-back NBA titles this season, which tips off Tuesday.

But bettors are all over the New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers and Minnesota Timberwolves.

The Westgate SuperBook is on the hook for six figures on the Timberwolves and is approaching six figures in liability on the Knicks — who acquired Mikal Bridges from the Brooklyn Nets in July and added Karl-Anthony Towns in an Oct. 3 trade with Minnesota for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo.

Philadelphia, another popular championship pick, signed Paul George and also added Andre Drummond, Eric Gordon and Caleb Martin.

Boston is the +325 favorite, followed by the Oklahoma City Thunder and Knicks at +650, and the Sixers and Wolves at 8-1. The SuperBook took a $10,000 wager last week on Minnesota at 10-1.

“It looks like the pecking order will be Boston, New York and then Philadelphia in the East,” SuperBook NBA oddsmaker Jeff Sherman said. “The Knicks have closed the gap on Boston.”

Sharp plays

Sharp bettors are at odds with the betting public on New York and the 76ers. Wiseguys have wagered on both teams to go under their season win total. The Knicks have been bet down from 54½ to 53½, while the Sixers have been bet down from 53½ to 51½.

“Sharps are betting against the high numbers on those two teams that the public’s betting to do well in the title odds,” Sherman said. “It looks like the Knicks should probably end up with more wins than the Sixers just because (Philadelphia center Joel) Embiid came out and said there’s not going to be a concentration for him on the regular season. That he doesn’t care about the MVP award and doesn’t plan on playing back-to-back (nights).”

MVP

The SuperBook took some action on Embiid to win MVP after Sherman raised his odds to 20-1.

“He’s our largest liability right now,” Sherman said. “We’re getting a lot of play on this. It’s always a popular market.”

Dallas’ Luka Doncic is the +350 favorite to win MVP, followed by Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at +375, Denver’s Nikola Jokic at +425 and Minnesota’s Anthony Edwards at 6-1.

“We’ve seen a lot of play on SGA, who opened at (+550), and we took Anthony Edwards down from 8-1 to 6-1,” Sherman said. “Jokic started out as the (+350) favorite but people think his run might be ending.”

‘Jontay Porter rule’

Major U.S. sportsbooks, including BetMGM and Caesars, said Friday they will not offer under bets on props on NBA players on two-way or 10-day contracts to fight attempts at fixes, according to ESPN.

Toronto Raptors forward Jontay Porter was banned from the league for life in April for his role in a gambling scandal tied to prop bets on his statistics.

The SuperBook didn’t offer any props on Porter last season, as Sherman said the book posts props mostly on starters and rotation players.

“We look for the guys that are attractive in the betting market. We don’t look to go deep down to a guy that might only get a few minutes. We did 10 props for each game (Tuesday). I used all starters,” Sherman said. “But let’s take the Lakers, for instance. We’ve got season-long Bronny James props. But we aren’t going to use any Bronny James player props on a nightly basis because we aren’t expecting much from him.

“Someone on the Lakers like Gabe Vincent might play 15 minutes, but I’m not looking to use someone like him. I’m more prone to do variations on LeBron (James’) points, rebounds and assists, rather than go deep on points for rotation players like that.”

Lakers not liability

The Los Angeles Lakers are usually the largest championship liability at the SuperBook. That’s not the case this season, though the Lakers are 35-1 long shots.

“We don’t have liability on them at this point,” Sherman said. “Bettors have looked elsewhere at teams that have made some changes in the offseason, and the Lakers are pretty much bringing back their team from last year that people weren’t that enthralled with.”