Pick Six Previews: Despite strong start for BYU, Arizona's defense wins

Estimated read time: 4-5 minutes

PROVO — BYU returns from their first bye week as one of the final 12 undefeated teams in FBS, and the only team with multiple wins over currently ranked teams.

The Cougars stunned then-No. 13 Kansas State with a barrage of turnovers and a 38-9 final score. Earlier in September they kept a high-scoring SMU out of the end zone and held onto an 18-15 win over a team that is now ranked in the Associated Press poll.

This marks BYU's fifth 5-0 start in the 40 years since their 1984 national championship, and they have jumped all the way up to No. 14 in the AP poll for their highest ranking since 2020.

Their top-rated defense will be tested Saturday by arguably the best one-two punch in the conference as they host Arizona (3-2, 1-1 Big 12) in the afternoon frame (2 p.m. MDT, FOX). This game carries some extra attention as BYU hosts FOX's "Big Noon Kickoff" pregame show for the first time in school history.

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2021-23): BYU 45.3 (50th of 70 Power Four) | Arizona 45.3 (51st)
2023 season: BYU 32.6 (63rd) | Arizona 69.6 (14th)
2024 season: BYU 74.4 (13th) | Arizona 54.6 (38th)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.

Arizona posted their first 10-win season in a decade, rattled off a school record win streak, and earned their highest AP Poll ranking since 1998. Then head coach Jedd Fisch was poached by Washington and they stumbled out of the gates this year losing twice: 31-7 at Kansas State and 28-22 to Texas Tech. They did defeat Utah 23-10 in impressive fashion, so this team is quite variable so far.

BYU has shattered all preseason expectations with their perfect 5-0 start, and has climbed all the way to No. 13 in my 2024 Game Grader for their highest spot in this metric since their 2020 team.

Arizona with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Arizona offense (2024): 3rd of 16 Big 12 (6th passing, 6th rushing)
BYU defense (2024): 1st of 16 Big 12 (2nd passing, 2nd rushing)

Arizona features arguably the best quarterback and receiver combo in the Big 12. Noah Fifita took over the starting job midseason last year and has been dynamic and productive. While his stats have dipped compared to 2023 in this new offensive scheme, there is no denying that receiver Tetairoa McMillan will be the best player on the field Saturday. McMillan posted 304 receiving yards in the opener and has led the Big 12 in receiving since. In fact, his 133 yards per game is second in all of Power Four so far.

BYU defensive coordinator Jay Hill should be atop the Broyles Award watchlist that is given to the nation's best assistant coach. He has led a tremendous turnaround here from a defense that was ranked 48th (of 70 Power Four teams) last year all the way up to the top spot in the conference halfway through the season.

Linebackers Harrison Taggart and Jack Kelly have been stout (45 tackles combined), Tyler Batty has been a disruptive force, and an amazing seven defenders have interceptions already. The question is whether BYU can keep up their turnover pace, but so far so good here.

BYU with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

BYU offense (2024): 12th of 16 Big 12 (11th passing, 8th rushing)
Arizona defense (2024): 7th of 16 Big 12 (8th passing, 4th rushing)

So far, BYU is below the Big 12 average in yards per play and rushing yards per carry but does check in at No. 6 in QB rating. When you adjust for opponent, they fall in both categories, but quarterback Jake Retzlaff earns credit for extending plays (and drives) with his legs.

The bye week came at a great time for BYU as their injury-riddled running back room was able to return to full strength for this matchup. Original starters LJ Martin and Hinckley Ropati are back in the lineup, and former walk-on Sione I. Moa has stepped up in their absence.

Even with the two losses, and most of the attention on their quarterback-receiver duo, Arizona's defense has quietly played solid football so far. They have held their five opponents below their season averages (yards/play); and in the win over Utah they had two interceptions, seven tackles for loss, and held the Utes to 0-4 on fourth down conversions. This is the toughest defense BYU has faced so far.

Game prediction

Back in the 1960s and 1970s, BYU and Arizona were WAC rivals. Arizona moved to the Pac-12 for the past 40 years, but the programs are now reunited in the expanded Big 12. BYU is on a 4-1 run in the series, including their most recent matchup, a BYU win in 2021.

I have been very impressed by BYU so far this season and they look like a contender in the wide-open league race. In this matchup, Arizona's defense wins that matchup, while Fifita and McMillan will prove too much to handle.

Arizona 24 | BYU 21

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Brett Ciancia

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Brett Ciancia is the owner of Pick Six Previews, a college football preview magazine graded as the "Most Accurate Season Preview" since 2012 (via Stassen). Ciancia was named a Heisman Trophy voter in 2019 and was invited to the FWAA's All-America Team selection committee in 2020.