Curtis poised to replace Romney with 35-percentage point lead in new poll
by Brigham Tomco, Deseret News · KSL.comEstimated read time: 3-4 minutes
SALT LAKE CITY — Utah Rep. John Curtis carries a 35-percentage-point lead over Democratic candidate Caroline Gleich in the race to replace Sen. Mitt Romney, according to a new Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll conducted less than a month before the general election.
Curtis counts on a solid majority of support among Utah voters in the state's race for U.S. Senate, the poll found. In a three-way matchup between Curtis, Gleich and Independent American candidate Carlton Bowen, the 3rd District congressman received 55%, Gleich received 20% and Bowen received 4%.
Over one-fifth of respondents, 21%, said they were unsure or didn't know who they would vote for if the election were held today. When undecided voters were asked to vote for one of the options on the ballot, Curtis' support jumped by 10 percentage points to 65%, while Gleich's share of the vote increased to 24% and Bowen barely topped 10%.
The results of this latest poll highlight the momentum that Curtis has displayed since even before he announced his run for Senate in January, according to Jason Perry, director of the Hinckley Institute.
"John Curtis has been a prominent candidate for the Senate seat since he was first mentioned as a potential contender," Perry said. "Despite a crowded primary, he secured a strong win, gaining significant voter support. As the general election approaches, he holds a solid position, with a noticeable lead over his competitors."
The poll was conducted by HarrisX Oct. 15–19 among 813 registered Utah voters and has a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.
Curtis and Gleich respond to poll results
The Curtis campaign said the results of the poll "reinforce that John stands firmly with Utah values."
"His focus on protecting our public lands, standing up to adversaries, and prioritizing the needs of Utahns reflects his dedication to earning the trust and support of Utah voters," said Corey Norman, chief of staff to Curtis. "In these final weeks, we're energized to keep up the momentum, ensuring Utahns hear directly from John about his vision as their next U.S. senator."
Curtis' support extended across the ideological spectrum. Nearly 80% of Republican respondents said they will be voting for Curtis, including 71% of self-identified conservatives, 45% of moderates and one-third of liberals. Two-thirds of Democrats said they would vote for Gleich if the election were held today, while 22% said they would support Curtis.
With over one-fifth of respondents undecided, Gleich said the poll results showed dissatisfaction with the status quo.
"I will continue to work to let all Utahns know the choice they have in this election: John Curtis, a career politician who serves no one except special interests, votes in line with Trump 94% of the time and has a worse environmental voting record in Congress than Mike Lee — or Caroline Gleich, a new leader with fresh ideas, a proven track record of protecting our air, water and public lands and the willingness to put the people of Utah first," Gleich said.
Election Day
A Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll conducted in August found Curtis with a 34-percentage-point lead in a head-to-head with Gleich.
Polling in early October from Noble Predictive Insights found Curtis leading by 30 percentage points among likely voters, with 51% of support, to Gleich's 21% and Bowen's 2%. One-quarter of voters remained undecided.
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 5. Utah voters should have received their mail-in ballots last week.
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Brigham Tomco
Brigham Tomco covers Utah’s congressional delegation for the national politics team at the Deseret News. A Utah native, Brigham studied journalism and philosophy at Brigham Young University. He enjoys podcasts, historical nonfiction and going to the park with his wife and two boys.