US Elections: When Will We Know the Results?

The 2024 presidential election in the United States has brought Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump into a tight race. With such a close contest, many are wondering when the final outcome will be announced. This article explores the unique American voting and counting process, which often delays the final result, and examines the key factors involved in this year’s election.

The Electoral College System: A Key Factor in Delayed Results

In the United States, the president is not elected by popular vote but by the Electoral College, a system in which states are represented proportionally to their populations. The Electoral College consists of 538 electors distributed among the states, and a candidate must win 270 electoral votes to secure victory. This system allows a candidate to win the presidency even if they lose the popular vote, as has happened in previous elections.

Each state decides how to count and validate votes, including early and mail-in ballots. This state-by-state autonomy can create significant variation in counting times. Large states in different time zones, like California and Florida, close their polls at different times, which means results are staggered as well. This time difference between the coasts is just one of many factors that affect how quickly a winner is determined.

The Impact of Mail-in and Early Voting on Counting Times

In recent years, mail-in voting has grown in popularity. For instance, in 2020, a substantial percentage of voters used mail-in ballots due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2024, mail-in voting remains a popular choice, especially among voters seeking to avoid lines or who are temporarily out of state. However, processing mail-in ballots can be time-consuming as these ballots undergo more rigorous verification processes, including signature and envelope authenticity checks.

In some states, such as Florida and Arizona, counting mail-in ballots can begin before Election Day, allowing for faster preliminary results. However, other states, such as Pennsylvania, do not start counting these ballots until the polls close, creating significant delays, especially when there are high volumes of mail-in votes.

Swing States and Their Weight in Deciding the Outcome

Swing states, also known as “battleground states,” are crucial in U.S. elections because they do not have a clear partisan majority like traditionally Democratic or Republican states. Key swing states include Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia. These states are essential because they often decide the final outcome of the election.

Historically, results in these states have been decisive. In 2016, for example, Trump’s victory was solidified by winning in several swing states. Therefore, the 2024 election outcome may significantly depend on the first numbers released from these states, as they often indicate broader voting trends. Additionally, both campaigns focus heavily on these states to sway undecided voters, increasing competition and tightening vote margins.

Legal Challenges and Their Impact on Final Results

Legal disputes can also impact how quickly results are finalized. In close elections, parties and campaigns often challenge results in states with narrow victory margins. This process occurred in the 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore, when results remained undecided for weeks due to a recount in Florida, ultimately decided by the U.S. Supreme Court.

In 2024, if the race is extremely close, particularly in swing states, candidates are expected to turn to the judiciary to ensure every vote is counted accurately. Such disputes may lead to prolonged legal battles, delaying the official announcement and extending the period of uncertainty. In states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which have strict rules for mail-in ballots, any legal contest over the validity of these votes could further extend the counting process.

Media and Public Expectations: How Election Night Projections Work

On election night, television networks and other media outlets follow and release projections based on early counting and exit poll data. Projections are common in states where historical trends and polling indicate a clear lead for one candidate. For example, California and New York, which traditionally vote Democratic, are often called for the Democratic candidate as soon as the polls close.

However, projections are more cautious in swing states. The margins in these states are typically much narrower, and small batches of mail-in or early votes can rapidly change the outlook. For example, in 2020, some projections were made and later reversed as the count progressed and more mail-in votes were counted. In 2024, media outlets are expected to proceed with even greater caution to avoid errors that could mislead the public.

Lessons from the 2020 Election: Improvements and Expectations for 2024

The high volume of mail-in votes in the 2020 election provided important lessons for the American electoral system. Many states have invested in improvements in processing mail-in and early votes to speed up the count and reduce delays. For example, Pennsylvania has adopted new regulations allowing mail-in ballots to be processed before Election Day, though the final count only starts after the polls close.

These changes aim to streamline the process, but a high volume of early votes is still anticipated in 2024. This means that, despite improvements, some states may still need extra time to finalize the count, especially if the race is close. Voters and the general public are also more prepared for the possibility of a delayed final result, given that the 2020 experience set new expectations for counting time in elections with heavy mail-in voting.

Election Timeline and Projections

To understand how the election process unfolds, here is a timeline of key stages in the counting and projection process:

• Polls close on the East Coast: Around 7 PM (local time), East Coast states such as Florida and Georgia end voting and begin counting.
• Initial preliminary results: Between 8 PM and 10 PM (East Coast time), initial results are reported in states with clearer trends.
• Counting in swing states: Throughout the night, results begin to emerge in battleground states, but the count is expected to be cautious and slow.
• Potential legal disputes: If there are narrow margins, counting could extend over several days, with the possibility of legal challenges.
• Official winner certification: Certification of final results varies by state deadlines, and may take days or even weeks if disputes arise.

Final Thoughts: A Closely Watched Election

The outcome of the 2024 election will be crucial not only for U.S. domestic policy but also for the global economy, international relations, and environmental policies. With a race between a prominent political figure, Donald Trump, and the current Vice President, Kamala Harris, this election is being closely followed worldwide. While experience from past elections is expected to make the counting process smoother, there remains a possibility of delays before the final confirmation.