Mets vs. Dodgers prediction: NLCS Game 5 odds, pick, best bet

· New York Post

After another dominant display offensively, the Los Angeles Dodgers are now one win away from a trip to the World Series.

Los Angeles has looked right at home in Queens, outscoring the Mets 18-2 since the NLCS shifted to Citi Field.

With The Amazins on the brink of playoff elimination, they’ll turn to David Peterson in Game 5 on Friday night, while the Dodgers will counter with Jack Flaherty.

The Mets have opted to use Peterson out of the bullpen in October, and considering that he hasn’t logged more than three innings in any of his last four appearances in relief, I’m not sure there’s a more difficult spot for him to make his first postseason start.

Dodgers outlook

There’s been plenty of discussion this season about the Dodgers lacking pitching depth.  After all, their staff suffered injuries to starters Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Glasnow, Dustin May, River Ryan, Tony Gonsolin and Gavin Stone, who are all unavailable to pitch in the playoffs.

However, even with those injuries, the Dodgers might still have the best starting pitching staff of the four remaining teams in contention for a pennant.

David Peterson is the stopper the Mets need in Game 5 of the NLCS. Charles Wenzelberg / New York Post

Flaherty has fit in rather seamlessly in Los Angeles since coming over from Detroit in a trade. He went 6-2 in 10 starts with the Dodgers while posting a 3.58 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP. 

It was Flaherty who got the Dodgers off to a 1-0 start in the series opener with seven shutout innings in a 9-0 win over the Mets.

The Mets are hitting just .209 against him in 93 plate appearances, with a strikeout rate of 24.7%. They are also winless in their two career games when facing the right-hander.

Mets outlook

While Carlos Mendoza’s decision to start Peterson is risky, but I’m not sure he has many other options. 

If starter Kodai Senga had looked healthy, he most likely would’ve been the pitcher getting the ball in such a pivotal game.

Senga started Game 1 against the Dodgers but couldn’t make it past the second inning after allowing three runs on two hits and four walks with significantly decreased velocity.

Peterson would enter the game in the third inning but wasn’t much better. In 2 ⅓ innings, he allowed three runs (two earned) on four hits.

Nonetheless, when Mendoza met the media, he expressed confidence in Peterson’s ability to pitch in such a critical game.

“He’s fully rested. He’s been one of our starters – one of our best starters,” Mendoza told The Post. “We just feel like he’s going to give us the best chance.”

To be fair, the Mets are 2-1 against the Dodgers with Peterson on the mound. Their lone defeat occurred in a 10-3 loss earlier in May when the left-hander made his season debut.

This time, Peterson will make his first career postseason start, and this Dodgers lineup rarely allows opposing pitchers to settle into their games.

Jack Flaherty dominated the Mets last time out. Charles Wenzelberg/New York Post

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Dodgers vs. Mets prediction

The Dodgers do a tremendous job of putting teams under pressure right from the very start. Shohei Ohtani leads off at the plate, followed by Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman hitting third. All three of those hitters are former MVP winners.

In the last two games at Citi Field, the Dodgers scored a run within the first two innings. Those early runs can deflate the opposition and completely drain any excitement the home crowd had coming into the game.

The Dodgers have excellent numbers against Peterson. In 72 plate appearances, they’re hitting .343 with a .420 wOBA and a .620 xSLG.

Peterson will also be the second-straight starting left-hander they’ll face, meaning their hitters won’t have to do too much to change their approach.

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The Dodgers have been the better team in this series since the two sides met in the regular season, and I expect them to end this magical Mets run on Friday night.

Best bet: Dodgers ML (-135, BetMGM)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.