What's at stake in Georgia's election?

Georgians go to the polls today in a parliamentary election that is viewed as the country's most decisive vote since regaining independence in 1991 from the former Soviet Union.

The choice on offer in the country of 3.7 million people is binary: to stick with the current populist government that clings to Russia or vote in an opposition bloc of four liberal parties that wants to cement Georgia's path to membership of the European Union.

Polling, often wide of the mark in Georgia, places the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party on 43%, well ahead of the main opposition bloc, Unity-UNM, on 16%.

But when combined, support for Unity-UNM and the three other pro-EU parties tallies at around 44%. That could just be enough to cobble together 76 seats in Georgia's 150-seat parliament.

It would be a thin majority in a parliament where brawls between politicians from the two rival camps have taken place in recent months.

Georgia's 'broadly friendly' opposition

"It's not a unified opposition. It's a broadly friendly opposition that has decided that they all want a westward course," Hans Gutbrod, a professor of policy research at Tbilisi’s Ilia State University, told RTÉ News.

"They broadly have made clear that the European future is on the ballot, that democracy is on the ballot," he said, adding that the election was "on a knife-edge".

GD has ruled the country since 2012 following the pro-Western government of the United National Movement (UNM), a party founded by former president Mikheil Saakashvili.

Since coming to power, GD has maintained a careful balancing act between applying for EU membership, whilst adopting a more illiberal stance on rule-of-law and social issues.

Last month, the ruling party voted through a bill in parliament that curbs LGBTQ rights, including the banning of same-sex marriage and adoption by same-sex couples.

Critics accuse the government of asserting greater control over the country's regulatory institutions, including the national bank, as well as pushing the party's traditionalist agenda on state-run cultural bodies.

Still, for most of its past decade in power, GD managed to keep up good relations with the EU and the country gained EU candidate status last December.

That was until the government in Tbilisi decided to push through its so-called "foreign agent" bill last May - a law requiring organisations that receive more than 20% of their funding from abroad to register as pursuing the "interests of a foreign power".

The law sparked mass protests by pro-EU opposition supporters and, in July, the EU paused Georgia's candidate status on account of democratic backsliding.

Polls show that between 80%-90% of Georgians are in favour of EU membership.

In this campaign, billionaire businessman Bidzina Ivanishvili, who founded GD and briefly held the position of prime minister from 2012 to 2013, has shed his reputation as a recluse to speak at his party's campaign rallies behind bulletproof screens.

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Mr Ivanishvili has spoken in vague terms about an unidentified threat posed to Georgia by, what he terms, a "Global War Party" in the West, which is intent on pushing Georgia into a war with Russia.

Framing election around war

GD has framed the election around war, claiming that a vote for the ruling party is the best way to avoid conflict with Russia.

That kind of scaremongering plays well with voters who fear a repeat of Russia's five-day invasion of Georgia in 2008.

Moscow's short war that year resulted in the de facto loss of South Ossetia, a region of north-central Georgia where Russia continues to station troops.

At a rally in Tbilisi on Wednesday night, Mr Ivanishvili said that if GD wins the election, it would ban UNM, the main opposition party, because, as he said, of its previous record in government. It is a claim that GD first made in August.

GD is not new to pursuing political opponents.

Mr Saakashvili, the former pro-Western president, was convicted for abuse of power in 2021, charges that his supporters say were politically motivated.

He is serving a six-year sentence and remains severely ill in hospital and under prison guard.

So, UNM, campaigning in this election as the Unity-UNM bloc, is fighting for its very survival.

Speaking on Thursday night at a rally in the western city of Kutaisi, Unity-UNM's leader, Tina Bokuchava said the election was Georgia's last chance to "return to the path of European development" and to "save Georgia from international isolation", reported the country's Inter Press News agency.

It is a pledge that appeals to many younger, urban Georgians who view their future within the EU.

The opposition parties, said Prof Gutbrod, have also focused on bread and butter issues such as increasing pension payments in an attempt to reach older voters who are broadly pro-EU.

Today's election in Georgia is the second major vote to take place in the region within the past week.

Only last Sunday, Moldovans voted in favour of backing a change to their constitution that sets the country on course to join the EU. But the vote passed by the smallest of margins.

Current Moldovan President Maia Sandu blamed foreign interference - a dig at Russia - for buying votes for the anti-EU campaign.

Ms Sandu topped the poll in the first round of the country's presidential election – held on the same day – but now faces an uphill battle to win the second-round run-off on 3 November.

Her pro-Russian opponent, Aleksandr Stoianoglo, is being backed by a number of eliminated candidates from the first round.

In Georgia, thousands of observers will attend polling stations around the country today to ensure that the election is conducted fairly. At stake is the country's European future, a goal that many of its young citizens hold dear.