Will ‘The Brutalist’ Dominate the Oscars and Make Adrien Brody a Two-Time Best Actor Winner?

A brutal Oscar season is ahead…in a good way.

As the Oscar race heats up, Hollywood is bracing for an intense, wide-open awards season. After its whirlwind tour through the Venice, Toronto, and New York Film Festivals, A24’s newly acquired historical epic “The Brutalist” has emerged as a potential heavyweight in this year’s Academy Awards lineup. Starring Adrien Brody in a career-redefining role as a Hungarian-born Jewish architect who survives the Holocaust and journeys to the U.S., the film screened in front of an influential audience at CAA on Sunday night. The room was filled with industry professionals, journalists, and Oscar winners like Cord Jefferson (“American Fiction”). After the screening, the film’s director, Brady Corbet, and co-writer Mona Fastvold participated in a post-screening Q&A session, giving the audience insight into the seven-year odyssey to bring this project to life.

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“The Brutalist” follows 30 years in the life of László Tóth (Brody) — it’s a story that finds the artistic genius grappling with addiction, poverty, and intolerance even after he lands a commission with a wealthy client, Harrison Lee Van Buren (Guy Pearce). He also hopes to be reunited with his wife, Erzsébet (Felicity Jones), after they were separated during the war.

Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on the Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars.

The film is undeniably an achievement and a marvel of epic storytelling, made all the more impressive because it was produced on a lean budget of just $10 million. Early buzz and reviews point to “The Brutalist” as a potential Oscar juggernaut, assuming A24 can effectively balance it with its other contenders — “Sing Sing” and “Queer” — and galvanize voters to embrace its hefty runtime.

In an Oscar season without a clear frontrunner, “The Brutalist” is poised to rise through the ranks. It helps that A24 is known for steering other unconventional projects to awards success — think “Moonlight” and *“Everything Everywhere All at Once.” The studio has a track record of winning over the Academy with more challenging, thought-provoking fare. While there may not be an agreed-upon Oscar leader, “The Brutalist” could have the ingredients to dominate the awards conversation. So far, the strategy of building buzz with tastemaker screenings and festival appearances seems to be paying off. “The Brutalist” has momentum.

Brady Corbet has been an industry name for decades, starting as an actor in films like “Mysterious Skin” and “Melancholia” before transitioning to directing with his 2015 debut, “The Childhood of a Leader,” which won Best Director in the Orizzonti section at Venice. His follow-up, “Vox Lux,” with Natalie Portman, further demonstrated his ambition and flair. “The Brutalist” has been in development since 2018, with the project initially featuring Joel Edgerton, Marion Cotillard, and Mark Rylance before pandemic-related delays led to casting changes. Now, with its formidable (reconstructed) ensemble in place, Corbet has delivered one of the most go-for-broke American films of the year, a potential darling of critics and other precursor awards.

Brody is no stranger to the Oscars, having taken home best actor for 2002’s Holocaust war drama “The Pianist.” But while Brody has maintained steady work in Hollywood with roles in “King Kong,” “Midnight in Paris,” and “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” his post-Oscar career hasn’t consistently generated the kind of buzz that makes him an obvious contender for a second Academy Award. That should change with his emotionally charged portrayal of László Tóth.

With this performance, Brody has the goods to join an elite club of nine other actors who have multiple Best Actor Oscars — a cadre of thespians that includes Jack Nicholson, Daniel Day-Lewis, and Marlon Brando. What’s more, there’s a prevailing sentiment among some Oscar pundits that if Brody hadn’t already won, he’d be the undeniable frontrunner for the prize this year. While Brody’s competition is formidable with contenders such as Ralph Fiennes in “Conclave” and Colman Domingo in “Sing Sing,” history shows that being a previous winner doesn’t hurt one’s chances of taking home another Oscar. In fact, since 2009, 54 people have won their second (or third, fourth, even fifth) Oscars across all categories. Nine of them are for acting awards: Daniel Day-Lewis, Meryl Streep, Anthony Hopkins, Frances McDormand, Mahershala Ali, Brad Pitt, Emma Stone, Christoph Waltz and Renée Zellweger are among the repeat recipients.

I believe an actor must have one of two “unofficial” traits to win a second Oscar: it has to be better than their first (which this one is) and/or it has to be “undeniable” (meaning it sweeps the critics’ awards and television prizes). That could be the case with Brody.

Meanwhile, Pearce’s turn as the sinister and calculated Harrison sparks comparisons to nominated works such as Philip Seymour Hoffman’s intense work in “The Master” or Josh Brolin’s ticking-time-bomb politician in “Milk.” Pearce, who has arguably been overlooked before — Curtis Hanson’s “L.A. Confidential” and Christopher Nolan’s “Memento” — could go to the forefront in the supporting actor race. The field seems relatively thin this year, with no real breakout yet, which could work in Pearce’s favor. He may follow a path similar to Sam Rockwell (“Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri”), Jared Leto (“Dallas Buyers Club”), or Tim Robbins (“Mystic River”) — actors who rode the coattails of a strong lead actor performance to their own Oscar win.

As for Jones, a past nominee for “The Theory of Everything,” she could also make waves if the film gains enough traction with voters. However, her chances may be hindered by the crowded competition for best supporting actress, with viable candidates like Zoe Saldaña (“Emilia Pérez”) and Danielle Deadwyler (“The Piano Lesson”) almost assured spots.

At a hefty 215 minutes, including a 15-minute intermission, “The Brutalist” is not for the faint of heart. If it were to win best picture, it would be the fourth longest winner in history, behind “Ben-Hur” (222 minutes), “Lawrence of Arabia” (228 minutes), and “Gone with the Wind” (238 minutes). Lengthy run times have not historically disqualified films from Oscar success, but they present a challenge regarding audience patience. With a movie this ambitious, both in narrative scope and runtime, “The Brutalist” could either be widely embraced by critics and Academy members alike — or it could falter if people are turned off by its sprawl.

That would be a shame. The talented ensemble, esteemed and impressive assembly of artisans (the score, production design, and cinematography are standouts), and a singular directing and screenwriting vision make “The Brutalist” truly special. Corbet shared his goals for the film during the Q&A: “I don’t want to make a movie for this season or this year. I want to make something that lasts forever. And if you don’t attempt to do that, then what are you doing? It’s difficult to make a movie, and it’s difficult to make a piece of shit. So why is there so much bullshit?”

Well said, sir.