What does a Trump presidency mean for Israel and Palestine?

DONALD TRUMP’S RETURN to the presidency of the United States will be welcome news to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Trump is “not going to stop the war in the Middle East”, predicts UCD professor of international politics Scott Lucas.

A close personal relationship between Trump and Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu – sealed during Trump’s last term in office – will continue to have an impact.

Lucas said: “He’s going to back Netanyahu, completely back Netanyahu.

“He’ll do that as part of a personal relationship.”

War in Gaza

The Biden-Harris administration has been fiercely criticised by pro-Palestine activists and politicians for its complete support of Israel throughout the war in Gaza, but Trump has said it hasn’t been enough. 

In May, Trump promised to crack down on pro-Palestinian protests, saying, “If you get me elected, and you should really be doing this … we’re going to set that movement back 25 or 30 years”. 

Since the conflict in Gaza began on 7 October last year, Trump has accused President Biden of holding Israel back as it prosecutes its war.

Trump has also said he would let Israel “finish the job”, in reference to the war that has left more than 43,000 Palestinaisns dead. 

Despite the Biden administration’s self-declared “ironclad” support for Israel, Netanyahu has made no secret of his admiration of Donald Trump.

He even featured the Republican in his 2019 election campaign. 

Trump is popular among the Israeli public too, with a recent poll showing 66% of the public favoured him over vice President Kamala Harris. 

Aviv Bushinsky, a political commentator and Netanyahu’s former chief of staff, has said: “His experience with Republicans is very good… unlike with the Democrats who are much tougher on him.”

While in office, Trump was an outspoken supporter of Israel and moved the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to the divided city of Jerusalem, which Israel claims in its entirety. 

He also recognised the occupied Golan Heights in Syria as part of Israel and cut all US funding to the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA. 

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During Trump’s presidency, the US also oversaw the normalisation of ties between Israel and some Arab states. Those aggreements were spearheaded by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and are known as the Abraham Accords. They led to the recognition of the state of Israel by the UAE, Morrocco, Sudan and Bahrain. 

Another move that pleased Netanyahu was Trump’s withdrawal of the US from a deal with Iran regarding the development of nuclear weapons, as was his assassination of high profile Iranian military officer Qasem Soleimani.

Trump and Netanyahu’s close personal relationship has been illustrated by the Republican boasting in October of having had frequent phone calls with the Israeli premier.

“We have a very good relationship,” Trump said at a rally in Georgia. “We’re going to work with them very closely.”

Today, Netanyahu congratulated Trump on his election victory.

“Congratulations on history’s greatest comeback! Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America. This is a huge victory!” he said in a statement.

Hamas also responded to Trump’s win with a statement, saying he must end US support for Israel. 

“This blind support for the Zionist entity must end because it comes at the expense of the future of our people and the security and stability of the region,” Bassem Naim, a senior member of Hamas’s political bureau, told the AFP news agency.

‘It could go either way’

Asked if Trump’s election would make a ceasefire in Gaza more or less likely, Tánaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs Micheál Martin said, “It could go either way”. 

“He has a strong relationship with Prime Minister Netanyahu,” Martin told RTÉ Radio.

“One of the challenges will be that he has not been sympathetic at all to Palestinian self-determination, which we believe strongly in, and the two state solution.

“And the only way that there can be sustainable peace in the Middle East is through neighbours living in harmony together.

“And that means respect, parity of esteem for Palestinians and a two state solution, which the vast, vast majority of the European Union member states believe in,” the Tánaiste said. 

Martin said there is “no basis for the continuation of the war in Lebanon or for the continuation of the terrible atrocities in Gaza, or indeed in the West Bank, and they must stop”.

“President Trump has said he wants peace, and this could manifest itself in different approaches to the Middle East. So it remains to be seen actually, in real terms, what will actually happen.” 

With reporting from AFP 

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