All eyes are set on Partition-Refugees from Pakistan in J&K Election

BJP hopes to reclaim its declining support base, but not sure of winning

By Dr. Gyan Pathak

Election campaign for the second phase of Jammu & Kashmir Vidhan Sabha Election on September 25 ended on Monday while it is nearing its peak for the third phase scheduled on October 1. All eyes are set on Pakistani refugee voters in the state who are going to poll for the first time since 1947 in the state (now Union Territory) elections. After abrogation of Article 370 of the Constitution of India in 2019, they have been given voting rights for the first time. BJP hopes to gain from it, since it had given land rights to them just before the current election were announced, but can't be sure of winning enough seat to form the government in the Union Territory.

BJP had become apprehensive about their support after the Lok Sabha election results were out on June 4. The party had won two Lok Sabha Constituencies – Jammu and Udhampur, but it was shocking for BJP leadership that their vote shares in these seats had fallen by 4.6 per cent and 10.1 per cent compared to the 2019 election when they had no right to vote. Has the BJP's charm over them vanished or sufficiently dwindled?

BJP leadership thought so and therefore the government has granted proprietary rights to the West Pakistani Refugees (WPRs) as well as the 1965 India-Pakistan war displaced on “state land” on which their ancestors were settled by the then state government just weeks before the announcement of Jammu & Kashmir election. They were given lands but never had been given proprietary rights as well as voting rights. It also prevented them from getting benefit from the government schemes.

They had earlier participated for the first time in any election during the District Development Council election in 2020. The result had given great hope for the BJP since the party was able to win 75 seats out of 280, mostly from Jammu region, and had emerged as the largest political party in the state. People's Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD) had won 110 seats mostly from Kashmir valley.. JKNC, JKPDP, JKPC, CPI(M), JKPM, and JKANC were part of PAGD. JKNC had won 67 and emerged as the second largest party, followed by JKPDP winning 27 seats. INC had won 26 seats only. A special concern was that 50 seats were won by independents. However, Lok Sabha result 2024 has dampened the BJP's upbeat mood, with decline in their share of votes in two seats it fought..

The decision of the Jammu & Kashmir administration had said that this move will end over seven-decade-long “discrimination” with the “displaced persons from West Pakistan” and Pakistan occupied Jammu & Kashmir.

There are about 30,000 families and 4 lakh people living chiefly in Jammu region. The ownership rights, right to vote, and access to government schemes were long overdue. The government had said, “The decision fulfils demands of all connected families, which have been requesting for ownership rights for past so many decades. Vesting of proprietary rights to West Pakistan displaced persons on state land would bring them on par with the displaced persons of Pak occupied Jammu & Kashmir and their long-pending demand will also be fulfilled.”

The Administrative councils had also approved such rights for 1965 and 1971 wars displaced people and given direction that the revenue department would ensure that proper safeguards are built in the operational guidelines to prevent any misuse, such as any unauthorized encroachments on the state land.

Refugees from Pakistan since 1947 have been treated as “non-state subject” and had no domicile status or voting rights in Jammu and Kashmir. They did not have access to government jobs and schemes. However, 1965 war displaced people from Chhamb were given permanent J&K domicile status with rights to own land, get government jobs, and voting rights, and access to all schemes.

Refugees from Pakistan were settled chiefly along the international border in Jammu, Sambha, and Kathua districts in the Jammu region, where their votes have now become crucial. The region will go to poll on October 1. It should also be noted that two seats in the J&K legislative assembly are reserved for these immigrants who will be nominated by the Centre. They are mostly from Scheduled Castes (SCs) communities. Seven seats are reserved for SCs. Jammu region has 43 Vidhan Sabha constituencies.

One major development in the Kashmir region, where there are 47 seats, large number of independents and candidates supported by separatist groups are contesting, which included Engineer Rashid's party candidates. JKNC and JKPDP has alleged that many of them are proxy candidates of BJP.

Nevertheless, the contest is between the BJP and INDI Alliance bloc minus PDP, it is too close. BJP hopes to win largest number of seats, but is uncertain about winning majority of seats in view of their declining share in Lok Sabha election in Jammu region despite giving many facilities to Pakistan refugees settled in J&K, which were being implemented very slowly. (IPA Service)