Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris’ National Lead Dips Slightly In Latest Survey—Amid Virtual Tie In Swing States

24 Sep 2024 by Sara Dorn · Forbes

Topline

The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is close to a dead heat just six weeks before the election, according to a string of surveys this month—the latest showing Harris’ favorability rating has reached a record high, while Trump’s remains underwater.

Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally at the ... [+] Alliant Energy Center on September 20, 2024 in Madison, Wisconsin. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)Getty Images

Key Facts

Harris is up by 5 points, 50% to 45%, according to Morning Consult’s weekly poll released Tuesday, down from a six-point lead (her widest yet in Morning Consult polls) a week earlier, though her favorability rating among likely voters has reached a record high (53% compared to Trump’s 45%).

The race is virtually tied—with Harris leading 48%-47%—in a CNN/SSRS survey of likely voters, and Trump leads 48%-47% in a Quinnipiac poll of likely voters, both released Tuesday

Harris’ figures in CNN polling have improved slightly since she first took over the party’s nomination in July, when Trump led 49%-46% among registered voters, but her numbers have worsened by a slim margin over the last month in Quinnipiac’s polling, which found her with 49% support versus Trump’s 47% in late August.

Harris has a four-point edge over Trump, 52%-48%, in the latest CBS News/YouGov poll of likely voters taken Sept. 18-20, but her lead shrinks to just 51%-49% in the seven states likely to decide the winner (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina).

It’s a marginal change from a month ago, when CBS and YouGov showed Harris ahead by three points nationally (51%-48%) and tied with Trump in the swing states.

Meanwhile, Harris has a five-point lead (49%-44%) with registered voters in an NBC poll from Sept. 13-17—a stark improvement in the Democrats’ numbers since Trump led President Joe Biden 45%-43% in July.

Harris and Trump are tied at 47%, according to a New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released Sept. 19 that found the majority of voters in every demographic gave positive reviews of Harris’ Sept. 10 debate performance, with 67% overall saying she did well, compared to 40% who said the same about Trump (Trump led Harris 48%-47% in Times/Siena surveys from early September and late July).

Two other polls from Sept. 19 show Harris with a slight edge: She’s up by four points (49%-45%) in a YouGov/Economist survey of registered voters, and two points (50%-48%) in Fox News’ likely voter survey, a small shift after Harris trailed by one point in an early August Fox poll and led by just two points in an early September YouGov poll.

Harris led Trump by three points, 48% to 45%, with 8% undecided, in a new Forbes/HarrisX survey of 3,018 registered voters taken Sept. 11-13 (margin of error 1.8), after the two were tied at 45% with 10% undecided in a pre-debate HarrisX survey of 1,003 registered voters taken Sept. 9-10 (margin of error 3.1).

In a Monmouth University poll of 803 registered voters taken Sept. 11-15 (margin of error 3.9), 49% said they will definitely or probably vote for Harris, while 44% said the same about Trump—results that nearly mirror the group’s August survey that found Harris leading 48% to 43%.

Harris was up 52%-46% among likely voters and 51%-47% among registered voters in an ABC News/Ipsos poll taken days following the debate on Sept. 11-13, essentially unchanged from her six-point leads with likely voters in late August and early August ABC/Ipsos surveys—even though 63% of Americans said Harris won last week’s debate.

Also after the debate, Harris led by a five-point margin—47% to 42%—in a two-day Reuters/Ipsos poll of registered voters that closed Sept. 12, (in late August, a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Harris with a 45%-41% advantage).

Big Number

2.3. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in RealClearPolitics’ latest polling average. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average shows Harris with a 2.7-point lead.

Surprising Fact

Pre-debate surveys found Harris’ polling surge appeared to be plateauing, including a NPR/PBS/Marist survey of registered voters taken Sept. 3-5 that showed Harris led Trump 49% to 48%, down from a three-point lead in August, though she still led him by three points, 51% to 48%, among those who say they definitely plan to vote. Harris was up by two points, 47% to 49%, in a Sept. 3-4 Emerson College survey of likely voters, a slight decline from her four-point lead in Emerson’s August poll.

How Does Harris Perform Against Trump In Swing States?

Harris leads Trump by two points overall in the seven battleground states likely to decide the election: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, according to a Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey taken Aug. 23-27. Harris leads Trump in six of the seven states individually, and is tied in Arizona. Trump leads Harris in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, while Harris leads in Pennsylvania, according to a new New York Times/Siena poll.

Tangent

Harris has narrowed Trump’s lead in Iowa over Biden from 18 points in June to four points in a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll conducted Sept. 8-11 by longtime pollster Ann Selzer, known for her accuracy.

Key Background

Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after resisting calls from within his own party for weeks to end his reelection bid in the wake of his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. He immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to officially nominate her in a virtual roll call prior to the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris tapped Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his pick for vice president. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on Sept. 10 from Philadelphia. Pundits, including former Fox News anchor Chris Wallace and NBC News presidential historian Michael Beschloss, widely considered Harris to be the winner of the debate, as she repeatedly needled Trump, causing him to veer off topic. The majority of voters, 53%, who said they had heard at least something about the debate said Harris won, while 24% said Trump won, and the rest didn’t answer, Reuters/Ipsos found. Far more Democrats (91%) also said Harris won, than the share of Republicans (53%) who said Trump did, according to the Reuters/Ipsos survey. Harris’ rise in polls is coupled with an increase in Democratic enthusiasm for the election, which has nearly doubled since Harris’ entrance into the race, from 46% in June to 85% now, while enthusiasm among Republicans has stayed stagnant at 71%, according to a Monmouth University poll released Aug. 14.