Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Harris Leading Trump In Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Latest Survey Shows

18 Sep 2024 by Sara Dorn · Forbes

Topline

Vice President Kamala Harris has razor-thin leads over former President Donald Trump in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, according to a new survey of the so-called “blue wall” states that could win Harris the election if she ekes out victories there.

Harris has been gaining ground throughout battleground states in recent weeks.Getty Images

Key Facts

Pennsylvania: Harris leads by six points, 51% to 45%, in a Quinnipiac poll of likely voters (margin of error 2.7), after a CBS/YouGov poll released earlier this month showed them tied in the state—Trump led President Joe Biden 50%-49% in an April CBS poll, and was up four points over Harris in a July Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey.

Michigan: Harris is up 50% to Trump’s 45%, according to the Quinnipiac poll; CBS/YouGov found she had a one-point lead, 50%-49%, she led by five points in a late August CNN/SSRS poll and 11 points in the July Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey.

Wisconsin: Harris leads 48% to 47%, according to Quinnipiac, after leading by two points, 51%-49%, in the CBS/YouGov poll, a shift from her 50%-44% edge according to CNN and SSRS, and on par with the two-point advantage she held here in July’s Bloomberg poll.

Arizona: Trump leads Harris by five points, 49% to 44%, according to a survey of likely voters by CNN/SSRS from Aug. 23 to 29, though 14% of Arizona voters said they might change their minds before November—Trump trailed Harris by two points, 49% to 47%, here in the Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey of registered voters taken just after President Joe Biden’s exit from the race.

Georgia: Harris is up by one point here, 48% to 47%, according to CNN/SSRS, within the 4.7-point margin of error, while 11% of likely voters surveyed suggested they could change their minds (she and Trump were tied here in July with 47% support each in the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll).

Nevada: Another state with no clear leader, Harris leads by one point, 48% to 47%, and 13% of respondents told CNN/SSRS they’re not firmly committed to the candidates they prefer now, a slight decline from Harris’ two-point lead here in the July survey.

Big Number

2. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in North Carolina, 49% to 47%, among registered voters, according to a late August Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, reversing the 48% to 46% lead Trump held there in July. North Carolina is widely considered a battleground state this year following changes in the population over the past decade that have shifted it more toward the left.

Tangent

Harris is receiving more support from younger, non-white and female voters—demographics who showed indecision over their support for Biden before he dropped out—according to a recent New York Times survey, which noted Harris had support from 84% of Black voters in the polls, a higher share of support than Biden had before withdrawing from the race in July.

Key Background

Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, despite insisting he would continue his campaign amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his June 27 debate performance. He immediately endorsed Harris, she announced plans to seek the nomination and officially became the nominee in the first week of August when 99% of delegates voted for her in a virtual roll call. Prior to Biden dropping out of the race, polls consistently found Trump would beat him in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of the seven (with the exception of North Carolina) in the 2020 election.