Dodgers Go Up 2-0 In World Series: Each Team’s Updated Odds To Win
by Giovanni Malloy · ForbesSaturday night in Los Angeles, the Dodgers took a 2-0 lead over the New York Yankees in the 2024 World Series. After the first two games at Dodger Stadium, the series shifts to New York, giving the Yankees a chance to regain their footing. While a two-game deficit in a seven-game series is far from insurmountable, the odds now heavily favor the Dodgers. Both history and statistics strongly back teams that take a 2-0 lead in the Series.
Historical 2-0 World Series Leads
The last time a team took a 2-0 lead in the World Series was in October 2019, when the Washington Nationals won back-to-back games at Minute Maid Park against the Houston Astros. The Nationals went on to win the series in seven games, overcoming a 2-3 deficit by winning the final two games.
Since the 1994 World Series, which was cancelled due to a player’s strike, there have been 14 different Series in which one team jumps to an early 2-0 lead. With this year’s result included, that number is now 15. Which means that, of the last 30 World Series, 50% have resulted in a 2-0 lead for one team after two games. More importantly, teams that take a 2-0 lead have won 13 of those 14 series—a staggering 93% success rate. Six of those victories were sweeps, with the winning team going undefeated.
There is still hope for Yankees fans, however. The only team ever to come back from a 2-0 deficit and win the World Series was the Yankees themselves. In the 1996 World Series, the Atlanta Braves went up 2-0 on the Yankees. The Yankees then stormed back to win four straight games and secure their spot as champions.
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World Series Sportsbook Odds
As of October 27, sportsbooks heavily favor the Los Angeles Dodgers to win the series. ESPN Bet lists the odds as -450 for the Dodgers and +340 for the Yankees.
In US sports betting, odds indicate how much you can win on a bet relative to a $100 wager, either as a favorite (negative odds) or an underdog (positive odds). Negative odds show how much you must bet in order to win $100. Positive odds indicate how much you will win on a $100 bet. In the case of the 2024 World Series, a bettor would need to wager $450 on the Dodgers to win the World Series in order to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, if a bettor wagers $100 on the Yankees to win the World Series, the potential profit would be $340.
Betting odds also reflect the implied probability of a result, which can be derived by converting the odds into percentages. Based on the odds, sportsbooks place an 81.8% chance on the Dodgers winning the World Series and a 22.7% chance on the Yankees winning the World Series given the Dodgers’ current 2-0 lead. As I discussed in a previous article, sports betting odds are not necessarily designed to maximize accuracy; they are designed to maximize profit. So, while betting odds represent a useful indicator of event likelihoods, they should be viewed with some degree of caution.
Statistical Modeling
Looking at historical World Series results, the outcomes of the first two games resemble the probabilities of a coin flip. If you flip a fair coin twice, there is a 25% chance of each combination: (Heads, Heads), (Heads, Tails), (Tails, Heads), and (Tails, Tails). This means there is a 50% chance of a 2-0 result and a 50% chance of a 1-1 result. Therefore, a coin flip can serve as a basic statistical model to estimate the odds of each team winning the World Series.
Using this simple statistical model, it is easy to compute the likelihood of each possible World Series outcome. From most likely to least likely: Dodgers win in four games (25%), Dodgers win in five games (25%), Dodgers win in six games (18.75%), Dodgers win in seven games (12.5%), Yankees win in seven games (12.5%), and Yankees win in six games (6.25%). This puts the overall likelihood of a Dodgers World Series win at 81.25% and a Yankees World Series win at 18.75%. Remarkably, this straightforward model very closely aligns with the predicted likelihoods of the sports betting oddsmakers.
2024 World Series Outlook By The Numbers
By all measures—historical data, Vegas odds, and even a simple statistical model—the Dodgers are in a strong position to win the World Series. History gives them over a 90% chance, and even the more conservative odds from sportsbooks and statistical models favor a Dodgers victory by over 80%. However, baseball is unpredictable, and if any team can defy the odds, it is the New York Yankees. Their 1996 comeback from a 2-0 deficit serves as a reminder that in sports, past performance does not always dictate future results. While the Dodgers are favorites, the Yankees have a proven history of rising to the challenge when it matters most.