2024 Holiday Spending Could Approach $1 Trillion, Retail Group Says

The National Retail Federation (NRF) expects retail sales during November and December to grow by 2.5% to 3.5%, with consumers spending at least $25 billion more than last year.

That would be slower growth than last year’s pace of 3.9%, but would still push holiday spending to record levels.

“We’re optimistic about the pace of economic activity through the remainder of this year,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a press conference announcing the forecast.

Lower energy costs, encouraging inflation news, and upward revisions to income and savings rates gives the NRF “increased confidence on the economy’s strength in the near term outlook,” Kleinhenz said.

Retailers are heading into the holiday season in a fairly upbeat mood, despite concerns that customers will be price-conscious, said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.

Shay cited the sentiment of one retail CEO, who summed up the holiday outlook by saying “there’s a lot of money out there still,” for holiday purchases.

The NRF is predicting that Americans will spend between $980 billion and $990 billion on core retail sales during the two-month holiday season, up from last year’s record spending total of $955 billion in 2023.

The NRF forecast does not include automobile, gasoline, or restaurant sales.

Last year the NRF forecast holiday growth of 3% to 4%. Actual results landed at the high end of that range, with sales up 3.9%.

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Online shopping and other non-store sales are expected to increase by 8% to 9% in November and December, to between $295.1 billion and $297.9 billion. Last year non-store sales rose 10.7% over the previous year.

The NRF experts do not expect the hurricanes that hit Florida and the Southeast to have a significant impact on the overall holiday results. Shay noted that many retailers have been able to reopen stores quickly and that “no one with whom I’ve had a conversation has given any indication that the hurricane impact is going to play a material role in the holiday season.”

The NRF forecast of 2.5% to 3.5% holiday growth is similar to the 2.3% to 3.3% forecast released last month by accounting firm Deloitte. Deloitte’s forecast covers three months, from November through the end of January.

Deloitte recently released the results of its consumer intentions survey for the holiday season, and it also reflected confidence in the economy.

Consumers said they plan to spend an average of $1,778 this holiday season, up 8% over 2023, with spending on experiences, and non-gift items such as decor and holiday apparel, seeing the biggest increases.

Consumers surveyed said they will adjust to higher prices by buying less for themselves, and by shopping during promotional events that offer deals.

Most holiday spending, according to Deloitte, is expected to occur in late November.

The NRF’s Shay noted during the press conference that the peak holiday shopping period will be considerably shorter than normal, due to the late date of Thanksgiving, which falls on November 28 this year.

“There are only 26 days through the day after Thanksgiving to Christmas Eve,” - six days less than last year, Shay said.

While many consumers do start their shopping before Thanksgiving, and retailers offer deals to promote early shopping, many Americans still do their holiday spending entirely during that Thanksgiving to Christmas timeframe. The shorter period could impact shipping and logistics as well, Shay said.

The NRF will release its consumer intentions survey next month.