Election Day 2024: Here Are Harris’ Clearest Paths To Victory (Live Updates)

05 Nov 2024 by Sara Dorn · Forbes

Topline

Vice President Kamala Harris heads into Election Day with polling averages showing a near-tie with former President Donald Trump in the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—considered her clearest path to the 270 electoral votes she needs to win the election.

Democratic presidential nominee, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, speaks during a rally at ... [+] Muhlenberg College Memorial Hall on November 04, 2024 in Allentown, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)Getty Images

Key Facts

Harris will hit exactly 270 electoral votes if she wins all three northern swing states, plus all of the other non-swing states President Joe Biden won in 2020, and the electoral votes he won in Maine and Nebraska, which are the only two states that split their votes (FiveThirtyEight polling averages show Trump and Harris are tied in Pennsylvania, and Harris is up by one point in both Wisconsin and Michigan).

Harris could also repeat Biden’s 2020 path to victory by winning six of the seven swing states, with the exception of North Carolina, earning her 303 electoral votes, but the prospect looks less likely considering most polls show Trump ahead in Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia—though the margins are within less than 2.5 points in all three states, so the race could swing either way.

North Carolina and Georgia will likely be the first battlegrounds called Tuesday, and if Harris outperforms expectations in the two states, where polling averages show Trump ahead, it could be a bellwether for her performance elsewhere.

A decline in Republican-leaning non-college educated white voters coupled with a rise in college-educated white voters (who are increasingly Democratic) could benefit Harris in the “blue wall,” while growing diversity in North Carolina and Georgia, along with a leftward shift among suburban voters, could also help Harris—though Republicans have a natural edge in both states.

Surprising Fact

Highly respected election forecasts out of Iowa and Nevada in recent days have predicted Harris could defy polling averages and win in those states. J. Ann Selzer’s Iowa Poll for the Des Moines Register/Mediacom, released Sunday, shows Harris up 47%-44% in the state, after Trump led by four points in Selzer’s September poll for the paper and by 18 points in June against Biden. Politically independent voters, women and older voters are the driving force behind Harris’ rise in the state, Selzer found. Similarly, veteran Nevada political journalist Jon Ralston, known for his pristine presidential election forecast in the state, also predicted Monday that independents, which make up the plurality of voters in Nevada, would propel Harris to a narrow 0.3-point victory over Trump in Nevada.

What We Don’t Know

When the results will be called. After North Carolina and Georgia, Wisconsin is the next swing state where results are expected, likely late on Election Day or early the next morning, followed by Michigan the day after the election, officials in both states have said. Pennsylvania could take several days to tabulate results, while Nevada and Arizona are expected to be the slowest to count ballots. Officials in Arizona estimate it could take 10 to 13 days before results are finalized.

Key Background

If elected, Harris would be the first woman and first person of South Asian descent elected to the White House, after a whirlwind campaign in which she was elevated to the top of the ticket to replace Biden after he decisively won the Democratic primaries in every state and dropped out of the race. Harris’ entrance into the contest marked a reunification of her party, after Biden’s resistance to bow out of the race—even as Trump surged ahead in polls—exposed deep divisions within the party. Democrats quickly coalesced around Harris, hours after Biden announced his historic decision to step aside on July 21, less than a month after his consequential June 27 debate with Trump. Harris tapped Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate two weeks before the Democratic National Convention. She enjoyed a brief honeymoon period in polls and was widely viewed as the winner of her first and only debate with Trump on Sept. 10, but Trump has narrowed the polling gap, and the two were nearly tied nationally and in every battleground headed into Election Day. Harris, 60, the daughter of a South Indian mother, an acclaimed breast cancer researcher, and a Black father, a renowned economist, was born in Oakland, attended Howard University for undergrad and received her law degree from the University of California Hastings. She was elected San Francisco attorney general in 2004 and became the first Black person, first woman and first Asian American to serve as California attorney general in 2011. She was elected to the Senate in 2016 and ran for president in 2019.

Tangent

Harris has largely centered her campaign around criticizing Trump and her warnings of the dangers she says he poses if re-elected. She has called him a “fascist,” has teamed with prominent anti-Trump Republicans, including former Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., to campaign against him, and has repeatedly highlighted his promise to seek retribution against his political adversaries, which he recently referred to as the “enemy from within.” In her truncated campaign timeline, some of Harris’ policy proposals have been light on details and she has faced the difficult task of differentiating herself from Biden, without fueling criticism of his administration. Harris has also walked back—or been silent—on some of her previous, more progressive policy proposals, including a federal fracking ban and decriminalizing illegal border crossings (both of which she said she no longer supports). She and her campaign have refused to definitively say if she is still in favor of other policies she once endorsed, including decriminalizing prostitution and slavery reparations for Black Americans. Harris has promised to deploy economic policies to boost the middle class if elected, including not raising taxes on Americans making $400,000 or less, a federal ban on price gouging and no taxes on tips. She’s also vowed to expand the child tax credit for lower- and middle-class families and wants to provide a $25,000 down payment assistance for first-time home buyers.

Chief Critic

Trump has cast Harris as a puppet of the Biden administration and the Democratic Party and accused her of inauthenticity, coining the nickname “lyin’ Kamala” for the vice president. Trump has suggested, without evidence, that Harris fabricated her college summer job at McDonald’s and has even questioned her race. In one of his more incendiary attacks against Harris during the campaign cycle, Trump suggested Harris “became” Black, though she has spoken about her biracial heritage repeatedly throughout her decades-long political career. He has also blamed her for the surge in illegal border crossings during Biden’s administration and record-high inflation rates last summer (which has since leveled off), and attacked her intelligence, repeatedly claiming she has a “low IQ,” is “lazy” and “slow.”