Jim Justice Wins West Virginia Senate Race—Putting Republicans Within Reach Of Senate Control

05 Nov 2024 by Antonio Pequeño IV · Forbes

Topline

West Virginia’s Senate race was called for Republican Jim Justice by the Associated Press on Tuesday, replacing retiring Sen. Joe Manchin, who caucuses with Democrats—bringing the chamber within one seat of a clear GOP majority.

Justice was favored to win the seat. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images

Key Facts

The AP called the race for Justice, who has served as West Virginia’s governor since 2017, at 7:30 p.m. on Tuesday, defeating Democrat Glenn Elliott and Libertarian David Moran.

Justice’s win could provide Republicans with a Senate majority if the party picks up just one more seat in Tuesday’s Senate races.

The GOP could also take the majority if no other seats change hands and former President Donald Trump wins the presidential election, since the chamber would be split 50-50 and Trump’s running mate JD Vance would cast the tie-breaking vote.

The governor was largely favored to win the seat in deep-red West Virginia after Manchin, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, announced last year he would not seek reelection for a third term.

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What To Watch For

Republicans are favored to take control of the Senate according to some projections, erasing Democrat’s 51-49 majority in the chamber. Control of the chamber could flip by way of two red states with sitting Democrats. Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester polled eight points behind GOP candidate and former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy in Montana, according to a New York Times/Siena poll, while Democratic Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown’s race against GOP candidate Bernie Moreno is razor-thin. Democrats are also defending seats in close races in Michigan, Arizona and Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, most of the seats defended by Republicans are considered safer, giving Democrats few opportunities to pick up new seats, though Texas Sen. Ted Cruz’s race is somewhat close.

Tangent

Trump won West Virginia in 2016 and 2020, and is expected to win the state again this year.

Surprising Fact

Justice, an heir to a coal business established by his father, had an estimated net worth of $1.5 billion in 2019. Justice lost his billionaire status in 2021 after it was reported he and his family had to pay back financial services firm Greensill Capital $850 million worth of loans designated for environmental and legal obligations his coal company took on.

Key Background

Justice served as West Virginia’s governor for seven years and won this year’s Republican primary for the state’s Senate seat by a large margin, defeating Rep. Alex Mooney and securing nearly 62% of the vote (138,307 votes). Justice campaigned on his record as a popular governor and campaigned on concerns regarding inflation, border security and the energy sector, championing West Virginia’s most prominent resource in coal and the state’s role as the fifth-largest energy producer in the U.S.