Abortion Ballot Measure Results: What To Watch For In Florida, Arizona And 8 Others

Topline

Voters in 10 states will decide on whether or not their state should legally protect abortion rights on Tuesday, the latest in a string of abortion-related ballot measures since Roe v. Wade was overturned—all of which have previously come out in favor of abortion rights, though it remains to be seen if these ballot measures will continue that trend. (This page will be updated as results come in.)

Key Facts

Arizona: Proposition 139 would create a “fundamental right to abortion” in the state Constitution, which prohibits the state from banning abortion before a fetus is viable and would overturn the state’s 15-week ban. (Polls close 9 p.m. EST, simple majority needed to pass.)

Florida: Amendment 4 would amend the state’s Constitution to make clear no law “shall prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion before viability or when necessary to protect the patient's health,” overturning the state’s existing six-week abortion ban. (Polls close 7 p.m. EST, 60% majority needed to pass.)

Colorado: The Right to Abortion proposal would add the right to an abortion to the state’s Constitution, also specifying the state cannot deny health insurance coverage for abortion—though the state currently has few abortion restrictions. (Polls close 9 p.m. EST, 55% majority needed to pass.)

Maryland: The Right to Reproductive Freedom amendment would amend the state Constitution to say people “have the right to reproductive freedom,” including on “decisions to prevent, continue or end one’s own pregnancy,” though abortion is already legal in the state. (Polls close 8 p.m. EST, simple majority needed to pass.)

Missouri: The Right to Reproductive Freedom amendment would specify in the state Constitution that the state cannot interfere with a person’s “fundamental right to reproductive freedom” or prosecute anyone for having an abortion or aiding in one, overriding the state’s near-total abortion ban. (Polls close 8 p.m. EST, simple majority needed to pass.)

Montana: Constitutional Initiative No. 128 would allow abortion until the fetus is viable, and after that if medically necessary, amending the state Constitution to “expressly provide a right to make and carry out decisions about one’s own pregnancy, including the right to abortion,” further ensuring abortion access cannot be taken away in the state after courts have previously upheld it. (Polls close 10 p.m. EST, simple majority needed to pass.)

Nebraska (Pro-Abortion Access): The state has two competing measures on the ballot, the first of which would legalize abortion until the fetus is viable or when medically necessary, overturning the state’s 12-week ban. (Polls close 9 p.m. EST, simple majority of at least 35% of overall number of votes cast in the election needed to pass.)

Nebraska (Anti-Abortion Access): The second measure would enshrine the existing 12-week ban in the state Constitution, outlawing abortion after the first trimester except in cases of rape, incest or medical emergencies. (Polls close 9 p.m. EST, simple majority of at least 35% of overall number of votes cast in the election needed to pass.)

Nevada: The Right to Abortion Initiative would guarantee the “fundamental right to abortion performed or administered by a qualified health care practitioner until fetal viability, or when needed to protect the life or health of the pregnant patient,” though abortion is already allowed in the state. (Polls close 10 p.m. EST, simple majority needed to pass, but would then have to also pass a second time in 2026.)

New York: The Equal Protection of Law amendment would more broadly amend the anti-discrimination language in New York’s Constitution, including adding protections from discrimination based on “pregnancy, pregnancy outcomes, and reproductive healthcare and autonomy,” ensuring abortion will remain legal in the state. (Polls close 9 p.m. EST, simple majority needed to pass.)

South Dakota: Amendment G would overturn the state’s current ban and impose escalating restrictions on abortion further into a pregnancy, allowing abortion without any restrictions within the first trimester of a pregnancy, abortion in the second trimester only for a reason that’s “reasonably related to the physical health” of the pregnant person, and abortion in the third trimester only when necessary to the pregnant person’s life or health. (Polls close 9 p.m. EST, simple majority needed to pass.)

What To Watch For

Results for the ballot measures will start coming out on Tuesday night, but it remains to be seen how long it will take for the races to be called, as that will depend on how close the races are.

What We Don’t Know

If and how the abortion ballot measures could help or hurt Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in the states where they’ve been brought. Democrats have traditionally viewed abortion ballot measures as helping to boost their candidates, believing more Democratic voters will be persuaded to vote because they want to back the ballot measure, and will then vote for Harris as well. Trump campaign political director James Blair told The Washington Post the Trump campaign believes the ballot measures may actually help them, however, as polling suggests abortion ballot measures are more popular than Harris, suggesting voters will split their vote to back both abortion remaining legal and Trump. That’s because voters might believe their vote preserving state abortion access means they don’t have to consider it as a key issue for the presidential race, and therefore will back Trump even though there’s a greater likelihood he would act against abortion rights. Either line of thinking could have major implications for the presidential election, given that abortion is on the ballot in the major swing states of Arizona and Nevada.

Big Number

56%. That’s the share of U.S. voters in an October YouGov poll who broadly said they would support a hypothetical ballot measure in their state enshrining a right to abortion before the fetus is viable in their state Constitution, in line with polls showing a majority of Americans support abortion remaining legal and oppose abortion bans. That being said, a 53% majority also said they would support prohibiting abortion after the third trimester except in cases of rape, incest and medical emergencies, as Republicans have decried abortions later into a pregnancy.

Chief Critics

This year’s abortion ballot measures have faced heavy resistance from Republicans and anti-abortion advocates in the states where they’ve been brought. Measures in states including Missouri, Montana and New York were allowed to stay on the ballot by judges after legal challenges were brought against them, for instance, and while the measure will appear on the ballot, litigation is still ongoing over South Dakota’s referendum. Florida’s abortion ballot measure has been attacked the most, as GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis’ administration has opposed the measure through such steps as a state health agency creating a website to advocate against it, DeSantis launching an investigation into signatures supporting the measure and the governor suggesting the state would bring criminal charges against television stations airing ads in support of the measure. A judge issued a restraining order preventing DeSantis’ administration from taking action against television advertisements as a result, ruling the state was “trampling” on free speech rights.

Key Background

Abortion ballot measures have become a key tool for abortion rights advocates to preserve access to the procedure in the wake of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade in June 2022. The measures have become a way for abortion rights supporters to harness public opinion in favor of legalizing the procedure, overriding anti-abortion lawmakers in states that have banned or are at risk of banning abortion, and ensuring that even if abortion is legal in a particular state, lawmakers will not be able to ban it in the future. Kansas was the first state to put abortion on the ballot in August 2022, with California, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana and Vermont following in the 2022 midterms and Ohio voting on abortion rights in 2023. All races have broken in favor of abortion rights, part of a broader trend of pro-abortion rights candidates winning at the ballot box in races where abortion is a central issue.

Further Reading