UFC 308 predictions, main card preview and analysis | Topuria vs Holloway

Jesse Holland is among the longest-tenured media professionals in the combat sports news space, covering MMA, professional wrestling and boxing on a full-time basis since early 2004.

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will send newly-crowned featherweight champion Ilia Topuria into battle opposite former division kingpin Max Holloway atop the UFC 308 pay-per-view (PPV) event, locked and loaded for this Sat. night (Oct. 26, 2024) at Etihad Arena on “Fight Island” in Abu Dhabi, UAE. In the UFC 308 co-headliner, ex-middleweight champion Robert Whittaker returns to quell the uprising of undefeated 185-pound phenom Khamzat Chimaev — assuming the unreliable “Borz” can make it to the cage on fight night. Dan Ige, Magomed Ankalaev, and Shara Magomedov will also see action this weekend in Abu Dhabi.

Who wins and who loses? Let’s try to figure that out below.

145 lbs.: UFC Featherweight Champion Ilia “El Matador” Topuria (15-0) vs. “Blessed” Max Holloway (26-7)

Ilia Topuria smoked Alex Volkanovski to capture the featherweight crown at UFC 298 earlier this year in Anaheim, a stunning performance that ordinarily, would cement a fighter like “El Matador” as the best fighter in his weight class.

Ordinarily.

Regardless of what he’s accomplished thus far in his unblemished mixed martial arts (MMA) career, fans are not going to be sold on Topuria until he defeats Max Holloway, one of the greatest fighters in the history of the promotion — in any weight class.

Beating “Blessed” will also silence the doubters who assigned an asterisk to his destruction of Volkanovski; an argument that has merit when you consider how many fans (and fellow fighters) were telling “The Great” to remain on the bench after getting wiped out by Islam Makhachev at UFC 294.

Topuria is lauded for his exceptional striking but actually has more submissions than knockouts. That said, I don’t think anyone expects this to become a grappling match, unless one of them gets plunked and resorts to panic wrestling.

I don’t know what I can say about Max Holloway that we don’t already know. The Hawaiian hold UFC records for Significant Strikes Landed (3378) and Total Strikes Landed (3622) and to put those numbers into perspective, second place is more than 1,000 strikes away in both categories.

If you fight Holloway, you get hit — a lot.

We’ve also seen “Blessed” withstand the onslaught from murderous power punchers like Justin Gaethje, a fight that landed his thirteenth post-fight performance bonus. At the same time, we can’t overlook the fact that Holloway was out-powered and out-struck by Dustin Poirier and went 0-3 against Volkanovski.

Those are the two fights that have me leaning toward Topuria. If the champ can stay composed and not play the Hawaiian’s game, he’s likely to remain fresher, faster, and more importantly, first in their inevitable striking exchanges.

Holloway is only 32 years old, but there’s a lot of miles on those tires.

Prediction: Topuria def. Holloway by decision

185 lbs.: Robert “The Reaper” Whittaker (26-7) vs. Khamzat “Borz” Chimaev (13-0)

I don’t understand the fascination with Khamzat Chimaev and sometimes I wonder if I’ve become the MMA equivalent of those salty boomers who sneer at all the young kids and their newfangled toys. Why “Borz” is ranked in the Top 15 at middleweight is a mystery to me when he holds zero wins over anyone currently seated in the Top 15. Perhaps his potential to be great is enough to list him among the division’s best?

Okay, enough whining.

Chimaev has only competed once over the last two years and that was a majority decision victory over Kamaru Usman at UFC 294, also in Abu Dhabi. “Borz” looked like a world beater in the opening frame then faded badly in the latter part of the fight, not unlike his performance against Gilbert Burns at UFC 273. Keep in mind that Usman basically jumped off the couch for that fight at the last minute to compete above his weight class and gave up a tremendous amount of size. Against Whittaker, Chimaev will remain the larger fighter and that should be the difference maker when you consider that wrestling will be the order of the day.

Chimaev has power, but trying to outbox Whittaker would be foolish.

Like “Borz,” the aging “Reaper” was also a welterweight but has gone toe-to-toe with some absolute killers at 185 pounds, including Yoel Romero and Israel Adesanya (twice), as well as notoriously tough outs like Paulo Costa and Marvin Vettori. What concerns me for this fight is how poorly his takedown defense held up against “Soldier of God,” which is understandable when you factor in the wrestling credentials of Romero. Then again, this is five-round fight and Chimaev has never gone past a third round.

If Whittaker can survive the initial blitzkrieg without getting walloped or submitted, I expect him to take over in the third round and have Chimaev a bloody mess by the time they reach the final frame — and may even secure a finish. I know Team Borz likes to blame the mysterious health problems for Chimaev’s conditioning; but in reality, when you cut a ton of weight and only fight once per year, you're never going to be a five-round fighter. He doesn’t have to be at UFC 308, but that all depends on the durability of Whittaker.

Prediction: Whittaker def. Chimaev by technical knockout

145 lbs.: Dan “50k” Ige (18-8) vs. Lerone “The Iceman” Murphy (14-0-1)

Dan Ige scored precious real estate on the UFC 308 main card as reward for his short-notice fight against Diego Lopes at UFC 303, which resulted in a loss on the judges’ scorecards. You’ll rarely see “50k” in a boring fight, evidenced by four post-fight performance bonuses scattered throughout his UFC career. The Hawaiian would likely have more, but often competes on stacked PPV cards with fighters like Dustin Poirier and Charles Oliveira, so the competition for those extra payouts remains fierce.

Ige, now 33, cut his teeth on Season 1 of Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in summer 2017 and quickly jumped out to a 6-1 record with a pair of finishes, good enough to land him a spot in the Top 10 at 145 pounds. The competition would soon go up and his winning percentage subsequently went down, leaving “50k” at 4-6 across his next 10, costing him the aforementioned spot in the division rankings. On the plus side, you would be hard-pressed to find a boring Ige fight.

He’ll need to fight the perfect fight if he hopes to overcome the unblemished Lerone Murphy, who steamrolled the competition on the European circuit to bag a UFC contract in late 2019. After fighting to a draw against Zubaira Tukhugov in his Octagon debut, Murphy went on to rack up six straight wins with a pair of knockouts over varying degrees of competition. No question a big performance against a battle-tested veteran like Ige will land Murphy an opponent in the featherweight Top 10 and the sooner the better, since “The Iceman” is already 33 years old.

Murphy is the more complete fighter and polished in ways that “50k” is not. He’s also a slow starter and at risk of taking damage from the Hawaiian’s sneaky power shots. I don’t want to discount the dog in Ige, who could very easily make this ugly and grind out a victory. The more likely scenario has Murphy shaking off a wobbly first round — and a potential KO scare — to claim the latter two rounds on points. It may not be the breakout performance Murphy was hoping for, but that’s the cost of fighting a scrappy, never-say-die banger like Ige.

Prediction: Murphy def. Ige by decision

205 lbs.: Magomed Ankalaev (18-1-1, 1 NC) vs. Aleksandar “Rocket” Rakic (14-4)

Magomed Ankalaev is pissed off because the promotion continues to pass him over when it comes time to pick the next opponent for light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira; which makes sense, because the Dagestani bruiser is ranked No. 1 in the world. At the same time, his level of competition has been weak and Ankalaev holds zero wins over anyone currently ranked in the Top 5 of the division. Are we supposed to storm the castle with pitchforks and torches because he laid waste to Johnny Walker?

There’s no denying that Ankalaev has talent and his wrestling is enough to give any contender the fits. Unfortunately, his performances have been uninspiring over the last few years, a far cry from his early days when he racked up three post-fight performance bonuses in his first four fights. Granted, not everyone at 205 pounds can perform like Alex Pereira, but it would be nice to see Ankalaev make a statement in a fight that actually mattered.

That brings us to Aleksandar Rakic.

The 32 year-old “Rocket” appeared to be the next big thing in the light heavyweight division after jumping out to a 4-0 start with two knockouts. Then came a series of debilitating injuries and nearly two years of inactivity, leaving Rakic at just 2-3 across his last five. Whether that absence and inevitable cage rust led to his demise against Jiri Prochazka at UFC 300 is unclear, but he gets no favors from matchmakers in this high-stakes matchup.

This fight will likely be determined by Ankalaev’s pace. Rakic, who holds advantages in both height and reach, could very well win this fight on points if his opponent continues his awful trend of disengaging and fighting from range. On the flip side, Ankalaev can make good on his promise to make “Rocket” pay for the promotion’s mistreatment, grounding and pounding the Austrian into oblivion.

Unless Ankalaev is completely braindead, there’s no reason to think he’ll turn in another snoozer. Rakic may give him problems early and often, but once the Dagestani settles in and finds the takedown, he’s likely to crush his foe and make the statement he desperately needed.

Prediction: Ankalaev def. Rakic by technical knockout

185 lbs.: Shara “Bullet” Magomedov (14-0) vs. Armen “Superman” Petrosyan (8-3)

Shara Magomedov is basically a one-eyed striker who wins regardless of his handicap and in many ways reminds me of the one-armed boxer from those old kung fu movies like Master of the Flying Guillotine (go watch it and thank me later). “Bullet” is a good choice to kick off the UFC 308 main card because of his exciting, action-packed style and unique look, though it remains to be seen if there’s more sizzle than steak. I don’t like to make it a habit of picking apart victories, but his performance against Antonio Trocoli was worrisome, at least in terms of his ceiling in the crowded middleweight division.

Armen Petrosyan bills himself as “Superman” but has looked more like Clark Kent in the three years since his “Contender Series” victory over Kaloyan Kolev. To his credit, Petrosyan is one of the few middleweights to face and defeat murderous power puncher Gregory Rodrigues, but he also looked flat and uninspired in subsequent losses to Caio Borralho and Rodolfo Vieira, the latter of which ended by submission. Fortunately for the Armenian, he’ll get an opponent tailor-made to his striking style which in turn, will deliver a fan-friendly fight. Neither combatant is a proven commodity thus far in their respective careers, which has me leaning toward the hometown hero with the undefeated record.

But not by much.

Prediction: Magomedov def. Petrosyan by decision

LIVE! Watch UFC 308 PPV On ESPN+ Here!

Championship Doubleheader! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah, on Sat., Oct. 5, 2024, with a pair of thrilling championship bouts at the helm. In UFC 307’s pay-per-view (PPV) main event, Light Heavyweight champion, Alex Pereira, goes for his third successful title defense of 2024 when he collides with No. 8-ranked contender, Khalil Rountree Jr., in a battle of ferocious knockout artists. Meanwhile, in UFC 307’s championship co-headliner, women’s Bantamweight roost-ruler, Raquel Pennington, defends against former titleholder and No. 1-seeded contender, Julianna Pena, in a grudge match dating back to The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 18 more than one decade ago. UFC 307 will also feature the return of former pound-for-pound great, Jose Aldo, as well Kayla Harrison, Kevin Holland and so much more! It’s must-watch action from “SLC!” UFC 307’s start time is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET (Prelims card) and 10 p.m. ET (PPV main card).

Don’t miss a single second of EPIC face-punching action!

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