Israel's Deadly Strikes On Lebanon Mark Start Of New War

Israel has conducted the deadliest bombardment of Lebanon since a devastating five-week conflict with Lebanese militant group Hezbollah in 2006.

The September 23-24 attacks that killed hundreds of people mark the start of a new war between Israel and its longtime foe, Hezbollah, experts said.

The sides have exchanged constant cross-border strikes since Israel launched its war in the Gaza Strip in October. Hezbollah has said it has fired rockets on Israel in solidarity with Palestinians.

But Israel's deadly air strikes, coming soon after a series of exploding device attacks in Lebanon that was widely blamed on Israel, indicate the outbreak of a new conflict.

"Both sides can escalate further, but we're already at a level of violence that matches the Second Lebanon war" in 2006, said Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence at the Bahrain-based Le Beck International consultancy.

The distinction between the ongoing conflict and a full-scale war "is becoming so narrow that it's almost irrelevant," added Horowitz.

Iran-backed Hezbollah is reeling from a series of setbacks in recent months as Israel has assassinated key members of Hezbollah's leadership and command structure. Israel's suspected attack last week targeting pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah fighters also compromised the group's communications.

Despite suffering significant losses, experts said the Lebanese militant group should not be written off.

Horowitz warned that putting Hezbollah "fully out of combat is not a realistic objective," given its military arsenal as well as its manpower, which numbers in the tens of thousands.

Hezbollah has retaliated to Israel's aerial bombardment by firing rockets at northern Israel. But the group has yet to use its more sophisticated weapons, such as drones and medium- and long-range rockets that can strike deep into Israeli territory.

Hezbollah insists it will continue to strike Israel unless a cease-fire deal is reached to end the Gaza war. Israel, however, says its goal is to ensure security along its northern border with Lebanon so that displaced Israelis can return home.

"The Israelis think that if they apply enough pressure on Hezbollah, the group will eventually agree to decouple the Lebanon front from the Gaza front -- or face so many losses that its ability to continue the war of attrition it waged against Israel for 11 months will be significantly reduced," said Horowitz.

But experts said Israel is adopting a dangerous strategy by ramping up its attacks against Hezbollah.

"The assessment may be that Israel can neutralize a significant part of Hezbollah's arsenal before the group can use it to carry out massive attacks against central Israel, and that Iran and Hezbollah may also be deterred from escalating," said Horowitz. "That's a very risky bet."

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Iran, Hezbollah's key backer, has been reluctant to directly get involved in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict.

Speaking to RFE/RL's Radio Farda, London-based political commentator Jalali Hashemi said Hezbollah's relatively muted response to the September 23-24 attacks and Iran's unwillingness to get into a direct confrontation with Israel have emboldened Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to carry out "more devastating attacks."

Iran and Israel have come to the brink of war on several occasions, including after the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, in Tehran in July. Tehran blamed Israel and pledged to retaliate, although there has been no direct military response by Iran.

Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian warned that Israel's air campaign in Lebanon "may turn into a regional war."

Ali Mohtadi, a Britain-based regional expert, said that during the Israel-Hezbollah war in 2006 Tehran refrained from getting directly involved in the hostilities. Instead, Iran provided its ally with logistical support and weapons.

"It is possible that this time, even though Iran is in a different place compared to 2006, it will continue to provide the same level of support to Lebanon [Hezbollah]," Mohtadi told Radio Farda.