Mets vs. Braves odds, line, score prediction, start time: 2024 MLB picks, Sept. 30 Game 1 bets by proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Monday afternoon's Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets matchup 10,000 times as the winner advances to the 2024 MLB playoffs

A win-and-your-in scenario will play out when the New York Mets battle the Atlanta Braves in the first game of a doubleheader on Monday afternoon in Atlanta. The winner of Game 1 advances to the 2024 MLB playoffs, while the loser must win Game 2 or the Arizona Diamondbacks would advance to the playoffs. The Mets (88-72), who avoided a sweep in the weekend series at Milwaukee, are looking to reach the postseason for the first time since 2022 and just the third time since losing the 2015 World Series to the Kansas City Royals. The Braves (88-72), who won two of three against Kansas City, need to go 1-1 to reach the playoffs for the seventh consecutive year.

First pitch from Truist Park in Atlanta is set for 1:10 p.m. ET. Atlanta is a -147 favorite on the money line (risk $147 to win $100) in the latest Mets vs. Braves odds from SportsLine consensus, while the total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 7.5, down half a run from the opener. Before making any Mets vs. Braves picks, be sure to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. Entering the final full week of the MLB regular season, it's on a 31-17 roll on top-rated run-line picks (+722) that dates back to last season.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mets vs. Braves and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Braves vs. Mets: 

• Mets vs. Braves money line: Atlanta -147, New York +124
• Mets vs. Braves over/under: 7.5 runs
• Mets vs. Braves run line: Atlanta -1.5 (+142)
• NYM: The Mets have covered the run line in 32 of their last 51 games (+15.55 units)
• ATL: The Braves have hit the game total over in 85 of their last 150 games (+15.60 units)
• Mets vs. Braves picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why you should back the Braves

Atlanta is expected to send right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach (8-7, 3.47 ERA) to the mound. In 20 starts this season, Schwellenbach has allowed 102 hits, 45 earned runs and 23 walks, while striking out 122. He's 2-0 against the Mets this season, including a 5-1 win on Tuesday. In that game, he pitched seven innings, allowing three hits, one earned run and one walk, while striking out four. In the 4-0 win over New York on July 27, he also went seven innings, allowing two hits, while striking out 11.

Among the Braves' top hitters of late is center fielder Michael Harris II. In Sunday's 4-2 loss to the Royals, he was 3-for-5 with a stolen base. He has six multi-hit games over the past eight. In Tuesday's win over the Mets, he was 3-for-4 with a double, home run, two RBI and two runs scored. In 108 games this season, he is hitting .266 with 14 doubles, three triples, 16 homers and 48 RBI. See which team to pick here.

Why you should back the Mets

New York has been powered by solid hitting the second half of the season. Among their top hitters, is shortstop Francisco Lindor, who returned from injury this past weekend. In Sunday's win over the Milwaukee Brewers, he was 2-for-4 with one homer, two RBI and two runs scored. He was also 2-for-4 with a walk in Friday's 8-4 loss to the Brewers. In 151 games, Lindor is batting .271 with 39 doubles, one triple, 32 homers and 88 RBI.

First baseman Pete Alonso will also look to come up big when the Mets need it the most. In 160 games, he is hitting .240 with 31 doubles, 34 homers, 88 RBI and 91 runs scored. In 11 games against Atlanta this season, Alonso is hitting .282 with five doubles, two homers and eight RBIs. In 86 career games against the Braves, he is hitting .242 with 16 doubles, 15 homers, 57 RBI and one stolen base See which team to pick here.

How to make Mets vs. Braves picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the run total, projecting 8.5 combined runs. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the MLB model's picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Mets vs. Braves, and which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that's on a 31-17 roll on top-rated MLB run-line picks, and find out.