No locks to make the College Football Playoff in the SEC? Parity leads to unexpected teams in conference race
SEC teams have been knocking each other off so far this season with only LSU and Texas A&M undefeated in league play
by Shehan Jeyarajah · CBS SportsThe SEC entered the 2024 season with several heavy hitters looking ready to contend for the College Football Playoff. In fact, five of the top seven teams in the preseason national title odds hailed from the SEC. Nine weeks into the season, the entire race has delved into chaos.
For the first time since 2007, there aren't any undefeated teams in the SEC heading into the month of November. Making matters crazier, the only teams still unbeaten in conference play – No. 14 Texas A&M and No. 8 LSU – lost nonconference games against Notre Dame and USC respectively. Next week, the Aggies and Tigers meet in College Station for control of the SEC title race. Who could have seen that coming?
But really, that's the kind of year it's been. Heading into the heart of the season, no one in the SEC should feel good about their College Football Playoff positioning.
If No. 5 Texas had won vs. Georgia on Saturday, that would have all but clinched a spot for UT in the CFP. Instead, the Longhorns' résumé of victories over teams barely .500 won't draw much acclaim. The return of the rivalry game vs. Texas A&M suddenly becomes a must-win.
No. 2 Georgia bought itself some leeway after beating Texas, but games against Ole Miss and Tennessee remain on the table. If the Bulldogs lose three games this season, even Saturday's victory at Texas might not be enough, especially with mediocre showings against Kentucky and Mississippi State.
After that, finding even a single clean CFP case is awfully difficult. LSU still has games against Texas A&M and Alabama remaining. No. 7 Tennessee is the other team in the top 12 of the AP Top 25 rankings, but a daunting road trip to Georgia adds a possible complication. At one point, Texas A&M seemed to have the cleanest schedule remaining, but the emergence of LSU and a major matchup against Texas at Kyle Field demands a split at minimum to reach 10 wins.
Of course, that doesn't include No. 15 Alabama, which has put together one of the most confounding seasons in the country. Beating Georgia and decimating Wisconsin on the road gives the Crimson Tide some leeway. Losing on the road to both Vanderbilt and Tennessee does not, especially with Missouri, LSU and a hate-filled Iron Bowl against Auburn on the horizon.
So quickly, let's work through some scenarios. Texas and Georgia are probably in good shape. The winner of Texas A&M-LSU might be too with their paths. Tennessee helped itself quite a bit with its win over Alabama, but simply has to play better than wins by 10 points or less against Oklahoma, Arkansas and Florida. No. 21 Missouri has to go on the road and beat Alabama to have a shot. Ole Miss needs to do something similar against Georgia.
Most likely, the SEC will get four teams in the CFP. At this point, none of the four are locks. And if the first three weeks of conference play are any indication, there could be plenty of more losses coming that we don't expect.
Another factor that's only made things more complicated is the sudden emergence of two serious contenders from both the ACC and Big 12. Those two conferences still boast three undefeated teams (No. 6 Miami, No. 11 BYU, No. 10 Iowa State) and a one-loss team that looks as good as anyone this side of Georgia (No. 9 Clemson). It makes the level of parity among second-tier SEC teams far more complicated. All four of the ACC and Big 12 schools rank in the top 11. Indiana is right outside, giving the Big Ten a truly unexpected fourth team to go along with Oregon, Penn State and Ohio State.
Granted, this is the first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff and debut of expanded Big Ten and SEC. There's no telling how the CFP Committee will react to SEC schedules that should all rank among the best in the sport. How will a 10-2 SEC team compare to a 12-1 Big 12 team? Can a 9-3 SEC team contend with an ACC at-large? We won't have any idea until the first rankings are released on (deep sigh) Election Day.
There are seven teams with a 2-1 record or better in the SEC heading into the home stretch. With plenty of complications ahead, don't be surprised if the race for the CFP among SEC teams ends in utter chaos.