MLB playoffs 2024: One question each for Phillies, Mets, Dodgers and Padres ahead of NLDS Game 2

The Mets and Dodgers took 1-0 series leads Saturday and will try to build on that Sunday

Major League Baseball's postseason continues apace on Sunday with a pair of National League Division Series Game 2s. First, the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies meet in Citizens Bank Park, and then the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers clash in the nightcap at Dodger Stadium. The Mets and Dodgers lead their respective best-of-five series by a count of 1-0. 

The stakes are high on Sunday. The Phillies and Padres don't want to be pushed to the brink of elimination with another loss (no team has come back from down 0-2 in a postseason best-of-five series since the Yankees did it to Cleveland in the 2017 ALDS), and on the other side the Mets and Dodgers don't want to see the series evened up. In the Dodgers' case, a loss in Game 2 would mean ceding home-field advantage to the Padres for the remainder of the NLDS.

With those considerations in mind, let's have a look at one particular pressing question for each of these four teams heading into Sunday's pair of Game 2s. 

Can Cristopher Sánchez navigate the Mets' right-handed hitters?

Aaron Nola is the Phillies' No. 2 starter, but he's being held back for Game 3 at Citi Field. In tabbing Sánchez to start Sunday's Game 2, Phillies manager Rob Thomson cited the lefty's success at home (and, by implication, his lack of success on the road). However, there's another Sánchez split in play, and that's how he handles the opposite side. 

This season, Sánchez has permitted a .612 OPS against left-handed batters with a K/BB ratio of 5.33. Versus right-handers, or the opposite side, in 2024, those figures worsen to a .672 OPS with a 3.18 K/BB ratio. Those trends also hold across Sánchez's entire career: .585 OPS and a 4.65 K/BB ratio against lefty batters but a .715 OPS and a 3.25 K/BB ratio against right-handed hitters. 

All of that brings us to the Mets' lineup, which is packed with potent righty bats like Francisco Lindor (he's a switch-hitter and will be batting righty against Sánchez), Mark Vientos, Pete Alonso, J.D. Martinez, Starling Marte, Francisco Alvarez, and others. This season, the Mets' offense ranked 12th in MLB with an OPS of .722 against right-handed pitching. Against lefties, however, the Mets ranked fifth in MLB with an OPS of .769. This a clear-cut case of Mets' strength meets Phillies' weakness, at least while Sánchez is on the mound, and how well Sánchez navigates that challenge could determine the outcome. 

Will the Mets keep the magic going?

This particular leaderboard seems relevant about right now: 

Four of those Mets comebacks have come within the last week: Game 1 against Philly on Saturday, the decisive Game 3 of the Wild Card Series against the Brewers on Thursday, the Game 1 victory over the Brewers on Tuesday, and Monday's win over the Braves that secured a playoff spot. Yes, all four wins the Mets have clocked this week were comebackers, and in three of them the plot twist came in the eighth inning. That was the case Saturday against the Phillies, and it was a layered comeback. As part of that five-run eighth inning that changed the course of Game 1 after a dominant Zack Wheeler exited, three consecutive Mets hitters reached base after being buried in 0-2 counts by the usually dominant Jeff Hoffman. Hoffman during the regular season permitted an on-base percentage of just .162 after getting to 0-2. 

This comeback subplot of course plays into the larger reality that the Mets were once 11 games under .500 this season, but then they, yes, came back to author the best record in baseball since that June 2 low point. To be sure, you'd rather not be in a position to have to come back in the first place, but there's no doubting the fact that doing so is a thrilling and vibes-enhancing way to tend to business. At this point, yet another Mets miracle would be surprising and not all that surprising, all at once. 

Which Jack Flaherty will show up for the Dodgers?

The Dodgers, beset by rotation injury upon rotation injury in 2024, added Flaherty to the fold leading up to the trade deadline from the Tigers. For Flaherty, health and excellence intersected for the first time since 2019, when as a member of the Cardinals he finished fourth in the NL Cy Young balloting. Flaherty's numbers declined after the trade out of Detroit, but on balance he was still effective in 10 starts for L.A. Over that span, he pitched to a 3.58 ERA (108 ERA+). However, he also had an FIP of 4.16 as a Dodger, which suggests his ERA was partly a function of luck. 

He's also been a bit of a high-variance pitcher with the Dodgers, vacillating between effectiveness in one start to a lack thereof in the next. He did find a bit of consistency in his final three starts of the regular season, albeit not in the way he and the Dodgers hoped. Over those three starts, Flaherty allowed 10 runs, all earned, in 14 innings with 14 strikeouts and nine walks. To state the obvious, the Dodgers could use some length and effectiveness out of him in Game 2, particularly since Game 1 starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto lasted just three innings. That'll be a challenge for Flaherty against a quality San Diego offense. 

Can Yu Darvish keep the Dodgers' power bats in check?

A groin injury and then a stay on the restricted list because of a family matter limited the veteran Darvish to 16 starts for the Padres this season. He returned from his lengthy absence in early September, which gave him time to make five starts down the stretch. Those five starts were a mixed bag. On the one hand, he had a solid 3.55 ERA in those 25 1/3 innings. On the other hand, he had an FIP of 5.34 over that same span with six home runs allowed. 

Across the entire season, the 38-year-old Darvish has had trouble managing contact by opposing hitters. This season, he was in just 32nd percentile of big-league pitchers in average exit velocity off the bat, as well as 38th percentile in the rate of hard-hit balls allowed. All of that is a particular concern against a Dodgers offense that this season ranked second in the majors in OPS against right-handed pitchers, second in slugging vs. RHPS, and second in home runs against RHPs. How well Darvish navigates all that thunder in the top half of the L.A. lineup may determine whether the Padres even the series before heading back to San Diego or find themselves one game from elimination.