Penn State is destined for spot in College Football Playoff, but a national title still seems a step too far

The Nittany Lions should make the big party in December, but questions remain how long they can dance

LOS ANGELES -- A thrilling comeback, aided by a historic tight end performance, has Penn State's College Football Playoff hopes more than alive and well. 

With a favorable remaining schedule that should only include one ranked team (Ohio State), James Franklin's No. 3 Nittany Lions are a strong bet to capitalize on the first year of the 12-team playoff format. Penn State shouldn't finish any worse than 11-1 with road trips against Wisconsin and Minnesota the only other real tests left on the schedule. 

After just missing the cut in recent years, annually boxed out of the playoff by Ohio State and Michigan, this was the preseason expectation for a program that likely would have made six playoff trips if the 12-team format began in 2014 when Franklin first arrived. Franklin's struggles against the Big Ten's powerhouses are well-known -- he is 4-16 against Michigan and Ohio State while at Penn State -- and might be one of the biggest winners of the Big Ten deciding to scrap its divisions. 

If Franklin does what he's supposed to and Penn State can host a playoff game, everyone should be extra happy in Happy Valley. 

But watching Penn State struggle to defend USC's offense for much of Saturday's come-from-behind overtime win contrasted with the two teams that played later Saturday night in Oregon, it still feels like Penn State is not quite ready to compete for national championships. Indeed, the Nittany Lions may be ranked No. 3 but are sixth in national championship odds. Even making the Big Ten Championship for a chance at a playoff bye will still likely depend on beating Ohio State on Nov. 2. 

Can Penn State beat Ohio State inside Beaver Stadium? Absolutely, although Ohio State still looks like it's at another level especially on offense. There's also that seven-game losing streak against the Buckeyes as the Nittany Lions annually come up just short against Ryan Day's squads. Oregon and Ohio State still look like the class of the Big Ten this season, with Penn State a step behind in personnel and style. 

Is quarterback Drew Allar good enough to beat Ohio State? To go on a playoff run and win a title? He was gutsy in the win over the Trojans and threw for a career-high 395 passing yards, but two of his three interceptions Saturday were poor decisions. Allar has been extremely careful with the ball -- he had only three total career interceptions in 28 games headed into USC -- so the issues are likely an aberration, but there are still questions about how he stacks up with the quarterbacks on other title contenders. 

Could he do what Dillon Gabriel just did against the Buckeyes? Or what Alabama QB Jalen Milroe did against the Georgia Bulldogs? That's what it's going to take in December to make a real playoff run. 

"Drew, he's just growing up," Penn State head coach James Franklin said. "Based on how he was recruited and then when he shows up, the expectations are through the roof, right? Then last year he's a first-time starter in the Big Ten and his touchdown-to-interception ratio was a lot to a little. People were still critical, right? And I get it, it's Penn State. We have really, really high expectations. 

"He's just gotten better and he's gotten better at really every single area. One of the big reasons he's gotten better is guys are making plays for him. The wide receivers are making plays this year in a way they didn't last year." 

The biggest difference this year, and perhaps the biggest reason to feel bullish on Penn State's chances, is first-year offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki. He worked wonders last year with Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels, and it's easy to see how much he's missed in Lawrence with the Jayhawks off to a disappointing 1-5 start in the 2024 season. 

Kotelnicki's play design on a play that featured tight end Tyler Warren snapping the ball to a backup quarterback who threw it to Allar who found Warren for a touchdown perfectly illustrates his creativity and brilliance. 

Kotelnicki did a fantastic job Saturday scheming Warren open against USC for a historic 17-catch, 224-yard and one touchdown performance. But if the word wasn't out on the nation's best tight end before Saturday, it is now. As playoff time rolls around and the competition intensifies, it won't be quite as easy as it was to throw to a wide-open Warren. You have to imagine Oregon's Dan Lanning and Georgia's Kirby Smart with their schemes and players will have better answers.

Penn State will need even more from receivers like Ohio State transfer Julian Fleming, who had a key drop against USC but rebounded nicely and had a critical catch to help Penn State pull off the win. The USC game showed there is an aggressive version of Allar there but he needs more than just Warren to maximize the squad's explosive potential. 

That will be crucial as Fleming faces off against his former team in November. Penn State showed resiliency against USC and fended off the narratives that it can't win big important games. Surviving a game like that clears the most reasonable path to the playoff if Penn State just takes care of business. 

Where we'll really learn about what Penn State is -- and isn't -- will come against Ohio State. Coming off a successful West Coast trip, Penn State looks and feels like a playoff team, albeit one that won't have enough juice and big plays to go all the way. A win over Ohio State would change that next big narrative for Franklin and Penn State.