Best NFL football knockout, survivor pool picks, advice, strategy for Week 3, 2024: Fade this undefeated team

SportsLine's advanced computer model just locked in its top Week 3 NFL survivor picks

Over the first two weeks of the season, the New Orleans Saints have looked like the most dominant team in football, outscoring the Cowboys and Panthers by a combined score of 91-29. Running back Alvin Kamara has already racked up nearly 300 all-purpose yards and five touchdowns this season. On Sunday, the Saints will take on the Philadelphia Eagles, a team coming off a defeat against another NFC South foe, the Atlanta Falcons. New Orleans is favored by 2.5 points according to the latest Week 3 NFL odds, meaning the Saints may not be one of the popular NFL survivor pool picks this week.

The two games that feature the largest NFL spreads in Week 3 are 49ers (-7.5) vs. Rams and Commanders vs. Bengals (-7.5). Should you target one of those matchups with your Week 3 eliminator pool picks, or should you target a game like Dolphins vs. Seahawks (-4.5) with Miami starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) sidelined? Before finalizing any Week 3 NFL survivor picks, see which team the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model just went all-in on.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 187-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 41-22 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022. 

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

The model can be used to crush the Survivor Pool format, which calls for picking one team to win each week but never using the same team twice. In Week 1, the model recommended the Saints as its top survivor pick. New Orleans won in 79% of SportsLine's simulations, and the Saints dominated Carolina, 47-10, in what was the most lopsided game of the opening week. Then in Week 2, the model recommended the Chargers, who were also picked to win in 79% of simulations, and L.A. also manhandled the Panthers, 26-3.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 3 NFL odds and locked in its Week 3 survivor pool pick. You can only see who the model is backing this week at SportsLine.

Top Week 3 NFL survivor pool predictions 

In Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season, the model is shying away from the Chiefs (-3, 46.5) versus Atlanta, even though the reigning champs have started off 2-0, with wins over preseason Super Bowl contenders in the Ravens and Bengals. The Chiefs are the two-time defending Super Bowl champions, but they're set to play their first road game of the season on Sunday Night Football.

Kansas City needed a last-second field goal to beat the Cincinnati Bengals at home in Week 2 after quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw for just 151 yards. Kansas City's offense also suffered a serious blow when Isiah Pacheco suffered a fractured fibula, which will cause him to miss Sunday's showdown against the Falcons.

Atlanta, meanwhile, will enter this matchup with confidence after knocking off the Philadelphia Eagles in dramatic fashion on Monday night. Kirk Cousins threw for 241 yards and two touchdowns in that victory and now he'll face a Kansas City defense that ranks 31st against the pass this season, giving up 256.5 passing yards per game. This could be a trap game for the Chiefs, with a divisional matchup against a potentially undefeated Chargers team on tap in Week 4, so the model advises to avoid Kansas City in this week's survivor pools. See which team to pick instead here.

How to make Week 3 NFL survivor pool picks 

Instead, the model is backing a surprising team that wins outright in well over 70% of simulations. The time to pick this team is now, and you can only see the play over at SportsLine.

Which surprising team is a must-back in your Week 3 NFL survivor pool? Visit SportsLine now to see which team carries you to victory in Week 3, all from the advanced computer model that nailed both its Weeks 1 and 2 survivor picks and is up well over $7,000 since its inception.