What's behind Aaron Judge's playoff struggles? Three possible causes for Yankee slugger's October slump

The Yankees have succeeded largely without the help of their biggest power threat so far

The New York Yankees will resume their pursuit of their first pennant since 2009 Monday night, when they commence their best-of-seven American League Championship Series against the Guardians. The Yankees, who hold home-field advantage, dispatched the Kansas City Royals in four games during the best-of-five divisional round. 

One notable aspect of that series was that the Yankees advanced despite receiving minimal production from outfielder Aaron Judge, the likely AL MVP Award winner. 

Judge hit .154/.389/.231 in four games while striking out five times in 13 at-bats. He now possesses the highest strikeout rate in MLB postseason history, minimum 210 trips to the plate, according to CBS Sports HQ's research team. Indeed, Judge's postseason woes are bigger than a single series or two. For his career, he's batted .207/.316/.446 in October as opposed to .288/.406/.604 during the regular season. 

Just why has Judge, ever brilliant during the regular season, found it difficult to gain traction once the playoffs begin? Here are three things to know about that dynamic.

1. He gets away from his approach

Whenever a player suffers through a prolonged slump or hot streak, we like to take a look under their game's hood to see what (if anything) they're doing differently. Sometimes the answer is nothing; other times, there's an illuminating shift in this or that tendency that serves as a skeleton key of sorts.

If there's one obvious change between the regular season and playoff forms of Judge, it's that he grows more aggressive at the plate when there's a chill in the air. That, in turn, seemingly makes Judge more prone to both expanding his zone and to swinging and missing, fueling that aforementioned strikeout rate in the process. 

If the numbers don't paint a picture, here's a heat map showing Judge's swing tendencies during the regular season versus the playoffs:

During the regular season, Judge's swing radius is nice and tidy within the strike zone; during the playoffs, he's been far more likely to chase after pitches that are up, inside, or even away and off the plate. Attribute that to whatever forces you want -- him pressing; him facing superior pitching; him facing better gameplanning -- but we think the approach decay has played a role in his relative struggles. 

After all, Judge's discipline is one of the foundational parts of his game, right alongside his elite strength. 

Still, that doesn't mean Judge's struggles are entirely skill-based.

2. Some bad luck

People get annoyed when the concept of luck is entered into the conversation -- it is a four-letter word, after all -- but we think it's valid here. Don't take our word for it. TruMedia tracks a statistic called "hard outs." Basically, it's a count of how many times a player met certain criteria on a batted ball that resulted in an out. Those criteria include an exit velocity over 95 mph and a launch angle between 3 and 45 degrees -- two variables that when twinned more often than not result in good outcomes. 

Since the start of 2020, Judge has recorded 195 "hard outs" in 597 regular season games. That's one every 3.06 games. During the postseason, however, Judge has compiled nine "hard outs" in 21 games, or one every 2.33 games. He had three "hard outs" during the Royals series alone, including this line out to Bobby Witt Jr.

It's not just that Judge is finding leather even when he's smoking the ball. He's also failing to benefit from as many fortuitous knocks. Judge compiled nine "soft hits" (exactly what you think) in the regular season between 2020 and this year. His next "soft hit" during the playoffs will be his first during that stretch.

We're not suggesting luck is the only thing bugging Judge -- as we noted in the first subheading, he clearly takes a more aggressive approach that may be harming his numbers -- but you cannot tell the story of his postseason woes without including it.

3. Smallish sample

Here's the other concept that annoys people. We're sorry to mention it, but the reality is that Judge's postseason sample remains on the small side. 

To wit, Judge has played in 48 playoff games over eight years. That's a week of regular season action per year. Overall, it's less than a third of an entire season. 

To put things into greater perspective, Judge has authored his share of rough 48-game stretches during the regular season. They've largely gone unnoticed because, as sure as water stills, his bat awakens and he puts up MVP-caliber numbers that scorch the slumps from his record. Again, we're not asking anyone to take our word for it so we pulled the numbers using Baseball Reference's span finder.

Judge has had ….

• Two different 48-game stretches with a sub-.700 OPS;
• Five other stretches with a sub-.750 OPS;
• Eight other stretches with a sub-.762 OPS (his career postseason mark);

You get the point.

The great thing about MLB's postseason is that the conditions are perfect to create and enhance legends. There's a reason we know Bucky Dent's name all these years later. There's a reason Aaron Boone and Dave Roberts were undeniable parts of baseball's grand story well before they became managers. And so on.

The flip side is that the postseason can diminish legends, too. Judge may be nearing that tipping point for some. We're not convinced that he's doomed to continue playing this way. Rather, if we had to guess, we think it's just a matter of time and opportunity before he finds his footing and demonstrates why he's on the cusp of another MVP win.