What's next for Mets after magical run ends? Playoff exit should only be start of contention window

The Mets were eliminated from the playoffs by the Dodgers Sunday night

The 2024 New York Mets were the ultimate "it's over/we're so back" baseball team. They started 0-5, then had a 12-3 run, then lost 27 of their next 39 games, and then had the best record in baseball (65-38) from June 3 through the end of the season. The Mets needed a clutch ninth-inning homer to beat the Braves in Game 161 just to get to the postseason, then they needed another to beat the Brewers in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series. Every time you thought you were out, the Mets pulled you back in.

After all those ups and downs, New York's season came to end Sunday night, with a loss to the Dodgers in Game 6 of the National League Championship Series. The magic finally ran out. The Dodgers will take on the Yankees in the World Series and the Mets are heading home after a successful season, albeit one with an unsatisfying ending.

Truth be told though, 2024 should only be the start of an extended period of contention for the Mets, who have almost unmatched financial resources, a bright front office led by POBO David Stearns, and a major-league talent base that includes MVP candidate Francisco Lindor and touted young sluggers Francisco Alvarez and Mark Vientos, among others. At the same time, there is work to be done this offseason. Perhaps more than is usually needed for a team coming off an 89-win season and an NLCS berth.

Here are three questions facing Stearns, the Mets, and owner Steve Cohen this offseason.

1. What happens with Alonso?

For much of the last six years, slugging first baseman Pete Alonso has been the Mets' most popular player, and certainly one of their most productive. His 219 home runs since the start of 2019 are the second most in baseball behind Aaron Judge's 232, and a typical Alonso season in 2025 would move him ahead of Darryl Strawberry and make him the franchise home run leader. Since Day 1, Alonso has been a great Met, both on the field and with his work in the community.

With his 30th birthday coming up in December, Alonso is set to become a free agent this offseason, and the fact of the matter is his production has slipped the last two years. His 34 home runs this season were his fewest in a 162-game season, and he had a .324 on-base percentage in over 1,300 plate appearances the last two years. The history of righty-hitting/righty-throwing first basemen in their 30s is terrible. In all likelihood, the Mets have already gotten the best years of Alonso's career.

Objectively, saying thanks for the last six years and letting some other team pay top dollar for Alonso's decline is the way to go. Just take the win, you know? The Mets could then slide Vientos over the first base, which is likely his long-term position anyway, and continue trending toward younger and more athletic players with a new third baseman, or keep Vientos at third and find a new first baseman. That said, Alonso is very popular and still productive, and letting him leave would not go over well with much of the fan base. So it goes when a star hits free agency.

Nothing in this sport happens in a vacuum. Re-signing Alonso would change the way Stearns & Co. build out the roster because first base (and also to some extent DH) will be occupied, and that's not necessarily a bad thing. Keeping the popular player you know can perform in your market is defensible. At the same time, letting Alonso leave as a free agent would open other doors, including perhaps ...

2. How aggressively do they pursue Soto?

I suspect the answer is very aggressively, as in they'll be right there until the finish line. My guess -- I emphasize this is only a guess -- is Juan Soto will ultimately return to the Yankees, though my confidence in that is 55/45 rather than, say, 90/10. Cohen and the Mets can match any free-agent contract offer if they so choose, so it will come down to selling Soto on the organization as much as anything, and the Yankees have had a 10-month headstart with direct access. Also, the Yankees are in the World Series. That probably won't hurt their chances of retaining Soto.

Point is, Soto is a generational talent and he'll turn only 26 later this month. He's an in-his-prime megastar and is exactly the kind of player the Mets and every big market team should pursue. Soto's prime aligns well with what's left of Lindor's prime, and he's a magnetic personality whose value transcends what he does on the field. Sign him and he's going to sell tickets, he's going to sell merchandise, he's going to the Hall of Fame in your team's uniform and will add the franchise's legacy that way. The question isn't will the Mets pursue Soto aggressively. Of course they will. The question is can they convince him to head across town?

3. How can they fill out the rotation?

The Mets had so much success this season thanks in part to a rotation that had three starters -- Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana, Luis Severino -- each make at least 31 starts with no worse than a 3.91 ERA. Add in David Peterson, and those four pitchers combined to start 115 of the team's 162 games, and they did so with a 3.56 ERA while averaging 5.7 innings per start. Most nights this year the Mets sent a quality starter to the mound. That's a pretty good foundation for a contending team.

Now comes the hard part. Manaea, Quintana, and Severino are all free agents -- Manaea will surely opt out his $13.5 million salary for 2025 and hit the market -- and Stearns and his staff have to fill a lot of innings over the winter. Here is New York's rotation depth chart using only players under contract or team control in 2025:

1. RHP Kodai Senga (missed almost all of 2024 with injuries)
2. LHP David Peterson
3. RHP Tylor Megill
4. RHP Paul Blackburn (missed end of 2024 with spinal fluid leak)
5. RHP Christian Scott (will miss 2025 with Tommy John surgery)
6. RHP José Buttó (had his most success as a reliever in 2024)

The Mets could put Buttó back in the rotation -- there's something to be said for learning how to get outs in the bullpen and taking that back into a starting role -- but he was a trusted high-leverage reliever much of the year. Senga and Blackburn are mysteries given their injuries. Prospects like Dominic Hamel, Brandon Sproat, Blade Tidwell, and Mike Vasil could enter the picture, though none pitched particularly well in Triple-A this year, and ideally they're midseason call-ups, not Opening Day roster candidates.

During his years with the Brewers, Stearns was very good at unearthing hidden gems and quality pitchers, and he will be expected to do that this offseason. He has a much bigger payroll to play with too, so expect him to take some bigger swings. Just about every team has to upgrade its rotation over the winter. That's just baseball. The Mets are no different except that their top three starters in terms of innings pitched are about to hit free agency. Starting pitching will be a primary focus this offseason.