Will the killing of Hamas leader Sinwar bring an end to the Gaza war? Analysts weigh in
Yahya Sinwar, a mastermind of last year’s Oct 7 attack that triggered the war in Gaza, was killed by Israeli forces two days ago.
by Louisa Tang · CNA · JoinThe killing of Palestinian militant group Hamas’ leader Yahya Sinwar on Wednesday (Oct 16) has been hailed as a pivotal moment in the Gaza war, but experts have stressed caution, saying an immediate ceasefire is unlikely to happen.
Israel said on Thursday that Sinwar, a mastermind of last year’s Oct 7 attack that triggered the war, was killed by Israeli forces during an operation in the southern Gaza strip. Hamas has not confirmed the death yet.
“It does create a succession question, which will give us some answers as to what the organisation as a whole would like to do in the future,” said senior Middle East analyst Ryan Bohl from global risk intelligence firm RANE Network.
He added: “But for now, it’s very unlikely that Sinwar’s assassination (will result in) an end to the hostilities.”
Sinwar, 61, was named as Hamas’ overall leader after the assassination of the group’s political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July.
United States officials have called Sinwar the main stumbling block to ceasefire negotiations, which have stalled for months.
A US Department spokesperson said on Thursday that it now wants to kickstart talks to achieve a truce and the release of hostages in Gaza. US President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris said Sinwar’s death could help end the year-long war.
HAMAS’ NEW LEADER WILL BE CRITICAL
Despite the US' optimism, some things could still stand in the way, including who Hamas chooses to succeed Sinwar, experts told CNA’s Asia First.
They said this would dictate whether the group intends to resume negotiations for a ceasefire or continue to fight like Sinwar did.
Bohl pointed out that it remains difficult to figure out what is going on behind the closed doors of Hamas’ Politburo – its main decision-making body that was headed by Sinwar until his death.
Hamas was quick to replace Haniyeh, Bohl noted, and restructured its leadership from having two leaders to one.
“Now, do we know if they’ll go back to a dual leadership structure between a political and military wing?” he questioned.
“Do we know if they’re going to choose from the Politburo ranks, like Khaled Meshaal who has a history of negotiating with Israel, or are they going to choose a hardliner from the Al-Qassam Brigades – the military wing of Hamas – to replace Sinwar and continue the fight?”
Meshaal, who survived an Israeli assassination attempt in 1997, was tipped to be the new Hamas leader before Sinwar took over.
However, Iran made it clear that Meshaal was not a viable choice. This means Iran and possibly other groups will have a say in who takes over the reins of Hamas, said Jonathan Panikoff, the US government's former deputy national intelligence officer on the Middle East.
WHAT IF HAMAS SPLINTERS?
Panikoff, director of think tank Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, noted that the situation could get trickier if Hamas falls apart.
“The command and control of the group has really been undermined. Israel, over the last year, has killed dozens of senior Hamas officials, dozens of military commanders,” he said.
“And so the question will be: Does the group stay unified, or does it splinter?”
He added that even if a core group within Hamas agrees to respect a ceasefire, some fragments could choose to continue firing, which can complicate the situation.
He added that Hamas’ refusal to continue ceasefire talks will likely not change if someone like Mohammed Sinwar – Yahya Sinwar’s younger brother and one of Hamas’ most senior military commanders – takes over.
WILL NETANYAHU WIND DOWN THE WAR?
On Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also said that Sinwar's death offered the chance for peace in the Middle East. But he warned the Gaza war is not over and Israel is likely to continue until its hostages are returned.
Over the past month, regional tensions have escalated after Israel launched a ground assault in Lebanon.
It is now planning a response to an Oct 1 missile attack carried out by Iran, which backs Hamas and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.
Experts said Netanyahu wants to portray a positive narrative that Israel has strategic momentum, as Sinwar’s killing comes just weeks after the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
However, this does not necessarily change the fundamentals on the ground, said analysts.
“These militant groups accept that they're going to lose their leaders as part of their war strategy,” Bohl said.
“The problem for Israel in ending the war in Gaza is that they have to find a way to get governing partners who could replace Hamas, and also find a way to deal with the remaining Hamas fighters that are going to be able to regenerate themselves from Gaza's population,” he said.
Panikoff noted that the Israelis have “not been that interested” in coming up with a strategy to bring the war to a close, despite rumours of them working with the United Arab Emirates and the US.
He added that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who will be travelling to Israel in the next five days for talks that will include post-war arrangements for Gaza, could help to figure out this end game.
“But in order for Netanyahu to take it, he's also going to have to take a strategic position about how the war ends, and he hasn't quite shown a readiness to do that,” Panikoff said.
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