Death of Hezbollah chief raises questions of what comes next

As Lebanon reels from news of the death of longtime Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, questions are being raised over what his death will mean for the armed group, for Lebanese politics and for tensions in the region.

Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who is returning from New York where he was attending the UN General Assembly, will hold an exceptional cabinet meeting Saturday evening focused on Nasrallah's death “as soon as he lands”, FRANCE 24’s Rawad Taha reported on Saturday. 

The official stance of the Lebanese government has been to seek a de-escalation and the full implementation of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, but Nasrallah's death and the continued bombardment of Beirut – the most severe of the past year – is fueling fears that cross-border tensions are on the verge of exploding into a wider conflict. 

The Lebanese population is sharply divided on the role Hezbollah plays in their politics, with only some 30 percent of the population professing significant "trust" in the movement and others deeply resentful, wanting a Lebanon free from sectarian conflict.

‘It will not take Hezbollah very long to appoint a replacement for Nasrallah’

Most would agree, however, that Nasrallah was the "glue" holding the group together, with his death opening up a new, as-yet-unwritten chapter. 

As an organisation, Hezbollah has in recent months been "significantly downgraded in terms of reputation, military capability, leadership", Mohanad Hage Ali, of the Carnegie Middle East Center, told Reuters. "I think the ability to spring back and stand on their feet has been significantly diminished." 

"Nasrallah was basically keeping them together. It was the glue of the organisation," he said. 

And while many might have agreed with the group's criticisms of Israeli actions in Gaza, Iran-backed Hezbollah did not enjoy support among Iran's regional rivals.

There is even a sense of "relief" in some capitals following news of Nasrallah's death, with Hezbollah viewed as a destabilising force by many.

"There's a mixture of apprehension in the region's Arab capitals, and also a sense of joy – hidden joy – because, as you know, none of the conservative Arab states have been particularly fond of Hezbollah," said Mehran Kamrava, professor of government at Georgetown University's campus in Qatar.  

Saudi analyst Aziz Alghashian, a specialist in Gulf-Israeli relations, agreed. "There is clearly no love lost between Saudi Arabia and Hezbollah. They find Hezbollah very disruptive in the region," he said.

View from Tehran

Iran, for its part, announced five days of national mourning following Nasrallah's death. 

"[Nasrallah] was not an individual. He was a path and a school of thought and the path will be continued," Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said in the statement on state television, adding that the death of the Hezbollah leader "will not go unavenged".

Complicating matters, a prominent member of Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, General Abbas Nilforushan, died in the same airstrike that killed Nasrallah.

Iran's options for any kind of retaliation, however, "range from unattractive to unpalatable", according to Ali Vaez, Iran research programme director at the International Crisis Group.

Hezbollah was meant to be the "shield" that protected Iran from Israeli and US aggression, Vaez said. If it now acts to preserve what is left of Hezbollah, it risks coming into direct conflict with more powerful armies.

Georgetown's Kamrava also predicted that Iran would not react forcefully to recent events, citing Tehran's doctrine of "strategic patience, whereby they play the long game".

"And I think that doctrine will continue," Kamrava said. "They are reluctant to engage Israel in any direct way."

But no reaction also risks undermining Iranian credibility as an "Axis of Resistance" power and a deterrence against Israel, noted Danny Citrinowicz, a member of the Atlantic Council’s Iran Strategy Project working group, in a reaction piece on Nasrallah's death.  

"In any scenario, Tehran will seek to restabilize Hezbollah and rebuild its force," he wrote. "But without Nasrallah, it will be extremely complex."

An heir apparent

Hezbollah now faces the challenge of choosing a new leader after suffering the heaviest casualties of its 42-year history. 

The killing of Nasrallah, who led the group for 32 years, has put the spotlight on the man widely regarded as his successor, Hashem Safieddine, a cousin of Nasrallah's and – like him – a cleric who wears the black turban denoting a descendent of the Prophet Mohammed.

As head of the group's executive council, Safieddine oversees Hezbollah’s political affairs. He also sits on the Jihad Council, which manages military operations.

Safieddine’s public statements often reflect Hezbollah’s militant stance and its alignment with the Palestinian cause. “Our history, our guns and our rockets are with you,” he said, in a show of solidarity with Palestinian fighters at a recent event in Dahiyeh, a Hezbollah stronghold in Beirut’s southern suburbs.

The US State Department designated Safieddine a terrorist in 2017. 

And he may have been Nasrallah's chosen heir, with the late leader “tailoring positions for him within a variety of different councils within Lebanese Hezbollah” and even having him go out to speak, said Philip Smyth, an expert who studies Iran-backed Shiite militias. 

Safieddine’s family ties and physical resemblance to Nasrallah, as well as his religious status as a descendant of the Prophet Mohammed, could all count in his favour as a potential successor.

He has also been vocal in his criticism of US policy. “This mentally impeded, crazy US administration headed by [Donald] Trump will not be able to harm the resistance,” he said in 2017 in response to US pressure on Hezbollah, adding that the US moves would only strengthen Hezbollah’s resolve. 

(FRANCE 24 with Reuters)