USD/JPY Price Forecast: Breaks below rising channel, weakening the uptrend

• USD/JPY has broken out of a rising channel in a sign of weakness for the uptrend. 
• RSI is diverging bearishly with price – a further negative sign. 

USD/JPY has been rallying higher since it reversed at the December 2023 low on September 16. 

It has established a sequence of higher highs and higher lows and could be said to be in a short-term uptrend.

USD/JPY 4-hour Chart 

Given it is a principle of technical analysis that “the trend is your friend” the odds favor a continuation higher. 

On Tuesday, however, price broke out of the rising channel, indicating weakness and that the established uptrend might be faltering. On its own, however, it is not sufficient to indicate a complete reversal lower. 

The overall bias in the short-term is still mildly bullish, however it would now take a close above 144.68 (September 24 high) to provide stronger confirmation of more upside. Tentative targets then lie at 145.00, then 145.50 and finally in a bullish case 146.00. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing bearish divergence with price (red dashed line on chart above). Although price was not lower on the September 24 lows compared to the September 20 lows, the RSI was lower, indicating strong downside momentum in the recent sell-off. This could be a sign of underlying weakness.

The pair is in a medium-term downtrend suggesting a risk of a resumption lower, however, those risks are balanced by the fact that it is in a long-term uptrend.

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