RBNZ Sectoral Factor Inflation Model arrives at 3.4% YoY in Q3 2024

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) released its Sectoral Factor Model Inflation gauge for the third quarter of 2024, following the release of the official Consumer Price Index (CPI) by the NZ Stats early Wednesday.

The inflation measure continues to fall, arriving at 3.4% YoY in Q3 2024 vs. 3.6% in Q2.

The inflation measures are closely watched by the RBNZ, which has a monetary policy goal of achieving 1% to 3% inflation.

Data released by NZ Stats showed Wednesday that New Zealand’s annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.2% in Q3, a sharp slowdown from the 3.3% growth in Q2. The market forecast was for +2.2%. Meanwhile, CPI inflation edged higher to 0.6% QoQ in Q3 versus 0.4% in Q2 and 0.7% expected.

FX implications

The Kiwi Dollar remains under heavy selling pressure after the RBNZ’s inflation data. At the time of writing, NZD/USD is down 0.33% on the day to trade at 0.6062.

About the RBNZ Sectoral Factor Model Inflation

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has a set of models that produce core inflation estimates. The sectoral factor model estimates a measure of core inflation based on co-movements - the extent to which individual price series move together. It takes a sectoral approach, estimating core inflation based on two sets of prices: prices of tradable items, which are those either imported or exposed to international competition, and prices of non-tradable items, which are those produced domestically and not facing competition from imports.

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