Why a seat-sharing pact is just the start of BJP's Jharkhand battle

Ironing out a seat-sharing arrangement puts the saffron party on a strong wicket even as internal fissures and a formidable opposition promise a tough fight ahead

Speculations of rifts within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Jharkhand were put to rest on October 18 as Union minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Assam chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP’s Jharkhand in-charge, announced the seat-sharing arrangement ahead of the assembly election due on November 13 and 20. Of the 81 seats, the BJP will contest 68, leaving 10 to Sudesh Mahto’s All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU). The Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)] has been allotted two seats, while the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) [LJP] will contest one. While the arrangement resolves some internal friction, the path to electoral victory remains fraught with obstacles.

This alliance is a departure from the 2019 election, where the lack of coordination among these parties was blamed for the BJP’s poor performance. The BJP fought alone for 79 seats and won only 25, while AJSU contested 53 without a single victory. JD(U) and LJP fared worse, forfeiting their deposits in all contested seats and collectively managing just about 2 per cent of the vote share.

AJSU will field candidates in strategic constituencies such as Silli, Ramgarh and Lohardaga, among others. JD(U) will contest in Tamar and Jamshedpur West, while the LJP will focus on Chatra. The BJP hopes this alliance will help them regain ground in areas where their rivals, particularly the JMM-Congress-RJD bloc, made significant inroads in 2019.

The NDA’s ability to stitch together this alliance is being viewed as a strategic victory, especially in marginal seats where every vote will count. The stakes are high—if the BJP hopes to reclaim power from the JMM-led alliance, it must capitalise on this renewed unity.

However, the INDIA bloc—a coalition of opposition parties—has evolved since 2019, and the BJP must now contend with new dynamics within its own ranks. Champai Soren’s defection from the JMM to the BJP has created opportunities but also stirred tensions within the party supporters, underscoring the fragility of alliances in Jharkhand’s political landscape.

THE TRIBAL VOTE CONUNDRUM

One of the BJP’s key challenges lies in the tribal-dominated regions, where 28 of the 81 assembly seats are reserved for Scheduled Tribes. The Kolhan region, with 14 seats, dealt a heavy blow to the BJP in 2019. This time, the BJP hopes that Champai Soren’s influence in Saraikela will help them regain a foothold. Former chief minister Arjun Munda is also expected to contest from the region, although his recent loss in the Lok Sabha election casts a shadow over his electoral clout.

In Santhal Pargana, a region with 18 seats, the BJP faces another uphill task. The JMM won 14 of these seats in 2019, leveraging strong tribal and minority support. The BJP, unable to count on Muslim votes, is attempting to create and exploit divisions between tribal communities and other groups to weaken the JMM’s base. However, this strategy is fraught with risks, as any backlash could further consolidate opposition votes.

The BJP has performed well in regions such as Palamu, Chotanagpur and Dhanbad, where it secured the majority of seats in 2019. The alliance also fared well in the Lok Sabha election, winning nine of 14 seats. Yet, replicating this success in the assembly election will require more than just arithmetic—political messaging and welfare outreach will play a decisive role.

WELFARE POLITICS: A DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD

Welfare schemes are at the heart of the JMM’s campaign strategy. CM Hemant Soren has expanded pension programmes and launched the ‘Aapke Adhikar-Aapki Sarkar Aaapke Dwar’ initiative, bringing government services directly to people’s doorsteps. The Mukhyamantri Maiya Samman Yojana, which provides cash transfers of Rs 1,000 to underprivileged women, is set to increase to Rs 2,500 from December—a move designed to cement voter loyalty.

The BJP, meanwhile, struggles to counter this narrative, especially in tribal areas. Soren’s arrest earlier this year generated a wave of sympathy, enabling the INDIA bloc to sweep all five ST-reserved Lok Sabha seats. The BJP must now find a way to reframe the narrative and counter Soren’s popularity among the tribal electorate.

The political dynamics in 2024 are markedly different with the INDIA bloc stronger this time, though not without challenges. The bloc must contend with internal discord, most notably involving Champai Soren. Earlier this year, Champai was appointed interim CM after Hemant Soren resigned following his arrest by the Enforcement Directorate (ED). When Hemant secured bail in July and attempted to reclaim his position, Champai refused to step down, citing mistreatment by the party. His eventual resignation and subsequent defection to the BJP are likely to hurt the JMM in key areas.

Adding to the intrigue, Hemant’s estranged sister-in-law, Sita Soren, has joined the BJP and, despite her loss in the Lok Sabha election, could still sway some votes through the legacy of her late husband, Durga Soren.

With both the NDA and the INDIA bloc locked in a high-stakes contest, the outcome of the Jharkhand elections will hinge on more than just seat-sharing deals. Each move—from nomination of candidates to leveraging welfare schemes—will influence the final tally. As the BJP navigates internal fissures and a formidable opposition, the seat-sharing pact may be just the beginning of a long and challenging campaign.

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