WTC Final qualification: India's chances take massive hit after Pune Test loss

India have been handed a massive blow to their World Test Championship final chances after a terrible show against New Zealand in the home Test series. India now narrowly lead the WTC points table with the rest of the teams rapidly catching up.

In Short

• India lost their first-ever Test series at home vs New Zealand
• This loss is a terrible blow to India's chances in the race for WTC Final
• South Africa and Sri Lanka are India's nearest rivals in the WTC Final race

India have been handed a mega blow by New Zealand in the World Test Championship. Having led the WTC points table for the longest time in the 2023-25 cycle, India have faltered at the very end. The Rohit Sharma side has lost their first-ever Test series against New Zealand at home, which means that their WTC points percentage has taken a massive hit.

The Indian team, which had above 70 Points percentage (PCT) ahead of the New Zealand Test series, has been dropped down to 62.82, with only 6 Tests remaining in the WTC cycle. With the series defeat, India's chances of reaching the final of the tournament next year have taken a massive hit. India now narrowly lead Australia - who have 62.50 PCT, with other teams rapidly catching up to them.

So, where do India exactly stand in the race for the WTC Final? And can they afford any more losses? Let's have a look.

No More Complacency

With their first Test series loss in 11 years, India have put themselves in a tight spot. Within 8 days, India's PCT in the WTC cycle has dipped from 74 per cent to 62.82 per cent. Rohit Sharma’s team still clings on to the top spot, with a slender lead over second-placed Australia.

IND vs NZ, 2nd Test 3rd Day: Highlights | Scorecard

Having lost the first two matches against New Zealand, India cannot afford any more complacency. India still have their fortunes in their hands, but losing more Test matches will mean that India's chances to reach the WTC Final will depend on the results of other teams. India will next play New Zealand in the third Test in Mumbai from November 1 and then travel to Australia to play 5 matches in the showpiece Border-Gavaskar Trophy.

Besides Australia and New Zealand, South Africa and Sri Lanka are the other teams that could hamper India’s chances in the remainder of this cycle.

How Many Defeats Can India afford?

To put it simply and rather plainly - India cannot afford a single loss in their next 6 Test matches if they do not want to depend on other results. If India want to reach the WTC final in a commanding manner, the team has to win at least 5 Test matches and draw 1 to remain above 70 PCT. However, it is unlikely that India will be able to manage a 4-0 or a 5-0 series sweep against Australia, who are the defending World Test Champions.

In a more realistic scenario, India will need to win a minimum of 2 Test matches from here on to remain in contention for the final. However, with 2 wins and four draws - which will keep their PCT above 60, India will have to depend on other results.

Who Are India's Nearest Competitors?

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka are currently placed third in the WTC points table and are the nearest competitor to India and Australia. Sri Lanka have four Tests remaining – two against South Africa away and two against Australia later in 2025, and they have to win all their games to qualify for the final of the tournament.

Currently, placed third with a PCT of 55.56, Sri Lanka can finish with 108 points with four successive wins. That would elevate the Lankan Lions to a PCT of 69.23. In case Sri Lanka win all four, India will only be able to better them with at least 5 wins in 6 Test matches.

South Africa

South Africa are now the dark horses to reach the WTC Final, having won the first Test against Bangladesh. Should South Africa win the second Test in Bangladesh and complete a series sweep, they have a realistic chance of making it to the final, given they will play 4 Test matches at home - against Sri Lanka and Pakistan.

With wins in all of these matches, South Africa can finish with a PCT of 69.44, leaving India with the challenge of not conceding another defeat and drawing only one game to secure a minimum of 71.05 PCT with five wins.

Australia

It is highly unlikely that India and Australia will make it to the WTC final together despite holding onto the top two spots currently. Australia can secure their berth with four wins from their remaining seven Tests – five at home against India and two against Sri Lanka.