Explained: How South Africa's win in Bangladesh has hurt India's WTC final chances

World Test Championship: South Africa's Mirpur Test win has shaken up the ICC World Test Championship standings, tightening the race for a top-two finish and complicating India's path to the final.

In Short

• South Africa's win over Bangladesh reshuffles WTC standings
• Australia leads WTC race with 84% chance
• India now need at least four wins for WTC final spot

South Africa's emphatic win over Bangladesh in the first Test in Mirpur has reshuffled the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) standings, complicating India's path to the WTC final. As the race for a top-two finish intensifies, India's margin for error has diminished following South Africa's resurgence. The battle for the WTC final spots is now more intense than ever, and every win will be pivotal in the final stages of this championship.

Before their victory in Mirpur, South Africa's points percentage (PCT) stood at 38.89%. The win boosted their PCT to 47.62%, propelling them to fourth place in the WTC standings, leapfrogging New Zealand (44.44%) and England (43.06%). The rise places South Africa back in the mix for a WTC final spot, increasing pressure on India and Australia, both of whom currently occupy the top two spots. While Bangladesh's loss did not affect their seventh-place standing, their PCT dropped from 34.38% to 30.56%, confirming their exit from the race to the WTC final.

According to cricket statistician Krishna Kumar, Australia leads the race for the World Test Championship finals with an 84% chance, while India follows at 57% after the Mirpur Test. After the emphatic win over Bangladesh, South Africa remains in contention with 46%, and Sri Lanka holds a slim 10% hope. New Zealand have a 3% chance, while England and Pakistan have minimal odds, at 0.2% and 0.04%, respectively.

DENT IN INDIA's WTC FINAL CHANCES

India, currently at the top of the table with a PCT of 68.06%, are still in a strong position, but their path to the final has become more precarious. To secure a spot in the final without relying on other results, India need at least four wins and one draw from their remaining seven matches. Achieving this would bring their PCT to 65.79%, which should be enough to guarantee a place in the final.

However, if India fail to win at least four Tests, their chances could plummet. A scenario where they secure only four wins and no draws would leave them with a PCT of 64.04%, opening the door for Australia, South Africa, and even Sri Lanka to overtake them. For example, South Africa could surge to 69.44% if they win all their remaining matches.

Australia, currently second with a PCT of 62.50%, also face pressure. If they secure four wins and one draw in their remaining matches, they can finish with 62.28%, which would keep them in contention for a final spot. However, any missteps could push them below India and potentially South Africa, depending on results.

Sri Lanka, who sit in third place with a PCT of 55.56%, remain an outside contender. If they can string together a series of victories, they could finish with a PCT of over 67%, but doing so would come at the expense of points for either Australia or South Africa. This would indirectly benefit India, as both rivals could fall short of the required points for a top-two finish.

UPDATED WTC STANDINGS AFTER THE MIRPUR TEST

WHAT INDIA MUST DO

India's task is clear: Rohit Sharma's men must secure at least four wins and ideally more, to keep control of their destiny. India must pull their socks for the next two Tests against New Zealand and the five-match series in Australia. Any slip-ups could allow South Africa or Australia to edge ahead, jeopardizing India's hopes of a third consecutive WTC final.