Kanguva box office prediction: Suriya's career-best opening, but is it enough?

Suriya's Kanguva is gearing up for a grand release on November 14. Will the film rake in Rs 2000 crore as producer KE Gnanavel Raja claimed? Let's hear what a trade expert had to say.

In Short

• Kanguva will release in theatres on November 14
• The film could open at around Rs 60 crore approximately, said trade expert Ramesh Bala
• The Suriya-starrer is directed by Siva

Tamil superstar Suriya is upbeat about the release of his upcoming big-budget film, Kanguva. As the film gears up for release on November 14, all eyes are on the film's box office collection. Months ahead of the film, Kanguva's producer KE Gnanavel Raja claimed that the film could rake in Rs 2000 crore worldwide. Trade expert Ramesh Bala, in an exclusive conversation with India Today Digital, predicted the Day 1 numbers and how the film would perform at the box office.

SOFT OPENING FOR SURIYA'S KANGUVA

Kanguva was initially supposed to release in theatres on October 10. However, the film was pushed when Rajinikanth's Vettaiyan hit theatres on October 10. Now, Kanguva is releasing in theatres on a Thursday, which may not give it an edge. However, the film would collect more over the weekend than on its opening day.

Trade analyst Ramesh Bala said, "Kanguva has a soft opening. One of the main reasons is the delay in opening of advance booking in multiplexes. In Tamil Nadu and Chennai, the opening looked decent. This is a career-best opening for Suriya. Compared to his previous theatrical release, Etharkkum Thunindhavan, Kanguva will make 2 to 3 times the collection of director Pandiraj film."

Here's the trailer:

RS 60 CRORE OPENING FOR KANGUVA?

The advance booking for Kanguva looks solid in Kerala, as tickets were made available two days ago. "The film earned Rs 2 crore in pre-sales in Kerala. The film will get a promising reception in the state. Even in Karnataka, Kanguva's pre-release business looks decent. However, in the North belt, despite massive promotions, the pre-sales look dull. In the Hindi market, South films need time to pick up momentum, unless its KGF 2 or RRR or Baahubali 2. If the word-of-mouth is good, then the weekend collections will pick up," explained Bala.

In Kerala, leading exhibitor Suresh Shenoy said, "The buzz around Kanguva is big and pressure for tickets especially 3D is huge."

Here's a post:

According to Ramesh Bala, Kanguva shows promising pre-release sales. "Overseas, the film must have earned half a million dollars (Rs 5 lakh) in the advance booking. In Tamil Nadu, the film will mint Rs 25 crore, Rs 40 crore in India. In total, the film will approximately collect Rs 60-70 crore opening on Day 1 globally," he explained.

Ramesh Bala also re-iterated that it is not a festival season and hence the film will see an incline in numbers towards the weekend.

WILL KANGUVA MAKE RS 2,000 CRORE GLOBALLY?

Producer KE Gnanavel Raja is mighty confident about his product and even went to the extent of saying that the film will collect Rs 2,000 crore at the box office. Ramesh Bala said, "To be honest, we can't really say if it will collect Rs 1,000 crore. The release trailer received a mixed response. Now, everything depends on positive word of mouth. Since Kanguva is the first part of the film series, people will wait and see how the reviews are before booking tickets."

Here's the release trailer:

In Tamil Nadu, Kanguva will face stiff competition from Sivakarthikeyan's Amaran, which is having a phenomenal run. "Since Amaran is running successfully, 300 screens will be allotted to them, while 500 screens will go to Kanguva. Further, a hundred screens will go to the English and Tamil version of Gladiator. Kanguva will face stiff competition from Amaran. In the long run, Kanguva may catch up, but in terms of opening day numbers of other better-performing films this year, it still lags behind," explained Bala.

Starring Suriya, Kanguva is a period film which also marks the Tamil debut of Disha Patani and Bobby Deol in lead roles. The film's story will take place across two timelines and Suriya will be seen in two distinct looks. Karthi will reportedly be seen in a cameo in Kanguva, which will give a lead up to the film's second part.

Produced by Studio Green and UV Creations, Kanguva has music composed by Devi Sri Prasad.