How Trump 2.0 could reset America's Indo-Pacific strategy

Donald Trump's re-election signals a possible shift in global stability, with a hardline stance on China and strategic alliances in the Indo-Pacific. As the US recalibrates its priorities, nations brace for economic and political realignments across the region.

The recent election of Donald Trump as US President marks a significant turning point, coming at a time of extraordinary turbulence in the global order. Ironically, while Trump’s first term was seen as highly disruptive, his re-election is being viewed by some as a potential stabilising force, with promises to end conflicts in Gaza and Europe. This shift highlights both the unpredictable nature of global politics and the significance of the US leadership transition. Speculation is mounting about how the Trump administration will shape US foreign policy, recalibrate economic priorities, and set the direction for America's strategic role in the world.

INDO-PACIFIC FOCUS

One of the primary arenas for the Trump administration’s foreign policy will undoubtedly be the Indo-Pacific. In Trump’s previous term, his Indo-Pacific strategy emphasised protecting American interests at home, signalling a preference for viewing international issues through a domestic lens. This theme is expected to persist, likely influencing his foreign policy approach in the region with a focus on advancing American prosperity, preserving peace through strength, and reinforcing US influence.
Under Trump 2.0, the Indo-Pacific strategy will likely be guided by a three-pronged focus that bridges the region’s continental and maritime domains. The US-China relationship will be at the centre of this approach, with trade tensions set to drive bilateral dynamics. Trump’s stance on China remains resolute, aiming to counterbalance its growing influence in both the economic and security domains. Additionally, Trump’s policy in the Indo-Pacific will place significant expectations on America’s key allies and partners in the region, including a more active role from India in the Indian Ocean and greater military commitments from allies like Japan and Australia. Finally, Trump’s Indo-Pacific vision will likely incorporate efforts to stabilise the Middle East, particularly by bolstering trade and connectivity with the region, to reinforce its linkage with the Indo-Pacific’s maritime sphere.

CHINA

A bipartisan consensus on China as the principal security and economic challenge to the US prevails in Washington. Trump’s return to office will likely intensify the push for fairer trade conditions, aiming to correct the economic asymmetry in US-China trade. Trump is expected to expand upon Biden-era tariffs on high-tech Chinese imports, potentially raising tariffs across more industries to protect American interests. During his campaign, Trump suggested imposing tariffs as high as 60 per cent on Chinese goods, a move that could reverberate across the Indo-Pacific region, prompting countries reliant on Chinese trade to seek new markets.

If Trump enacts high blanket tariffs, supply chains will undergo significant shifts, reshaping trade relations throughout the region. Trump’s approach to China will focus on both economic and security aspects, emphasising the need for the US to maintain its competitive edge in emerging technologies. This strategy is also likely to encourage American businesses to diversify their supply chains away from China, potentially accelerating partnerships with other Indo-Pacific nations.

India

India stands out as a particularly vital partner in Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy. During his campaign, Trump highlighted his strong relationship with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who promptly congratulated him on his election victory. The Trump administration will likely continue to prioritise defence, technology, and space collaboration with India, sectors that are central to both countries' strategic ambitions.
The existing frameworks, like the India-US Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) and the INDUS X, which focuses on defence cooperation, are expected to gain momentum under Trump 2.0. With influential figures like Elon Musk, who advocates for innovation in technology and clean energy, expected to have a voice in Trump's circle, US.-India cooperation on technology could see significant advancements. This collaboration could drive progress in areas like space exploration, cybersecurity, and clean energy, further solidifying India’s position as a counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific.

In particular, the defence relationship between India and the US may intensify, with greater interoperability and a bolstered defence supply chain. As the US seeks to distribute regional security responsibilities, India is poised to play a larger role in ensuring Indo-Pacific stability.

Trump’s second term will likely prompt economic recalibrations across the Indo-Pacific as countries respond to shifts in US-China relations. A heightened trade war or substantial tariffs could have significant implications for regional economies, pushing them to reassess their economic ties with both the US and China. While Trump is expected to focus on addressing domestic economic issues initially, his administration’s foreign policy recalibrations will have ripple effects throughout Asia, particularly in the areas of trade, infrastructure, and security.

Countries in the Asian maritime and continental domains should brace for a potential strategic rebalancing under Trump’s leadership. With a renewed emphasis on trade fairness, Trump’s approach may inspire other nations to reconsider their dependency on China, fostering new alliances and trade partnerships within the Indo-Pacific. Trump's stance on multilateral institutions will also play a role, as he has historically favoured bilateral agreements over multilateral frameworks, likely reducing the US commitment to regional bodies such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in favour of direct partnerships with key allies.

Trump’s Indo-Pacific vision will not exist in isolation; it will be intertwined with his approach to the Middle East, where he has promised to pursue stability. Trump is likely to view the Middle East as integral to the Indo-Pacific due to its trade and connectivity potential. The Abraham Accords, which Trump brokered during his first term, set a precedent for regional partnerships, and Trump may seek to expand these agreements to include Indo-Pacific nations. Strengthening economic and strategic ties between the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific could enhance trade routes and create new economic opportunities, especially in energy and infrastructure.

As Trump assumes office, his administration will need to balance immediate domestic priorities with a proactive Indo-Pacific strategy. The Indo-Pacific region, encompassing vast and varied interests, will witness both opportunities and uncertainties under Trump 2.0. With a likely hard stance on China, a strengthened alliance with India, and an economic policy driven by trade imbalances, Trump’s approach will shape the Indo-Pacific’s trajectory and its role in the broader global order. The challenge for Indo-Pacific nations will be to navigate the complexities of a US-China rivalry, balancing economic dependencies with strategic alignments.

(Views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author)