Harris leads Trump amongst Black voters but falls short of Biden's 2020 margins

A new CNN poll shows Democratic candidate Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by 63 points amongst Black likely voters, with 79% supporting her compared to Trump's 16%. Despite this strong lead, Harris's support falls short of the margins achieved by President Biden in 2020.

In Short

• Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by 63 points amongst Black likely voters
• 92% of Harris' supporters have made up their minds, unlike some Trump backers
• Nearly 9 in 10 Black voters believe the US political system needs major reforms

In a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris, 59, leads former President and Republican presidential candidate, Donald Trump, 78, by a wide margin among Black likely voters ahead of the 2024 election. Harris holds a 63-point advantage over Trump, with 79% of Black likely voters supporting her, compared to Trump’s 16%.

However, the poll also indicates that Harris is trailing behind the impressive margins achieved by President Joe Biden among Black voters in 2020.

While Harris’s support among Black voters has grown since June, when she trailed Biden’s 2020 performance, the poll also suggests that some Black voters supporting Trump or third-party candidates remain uncertain about their choice.

In contrast, 92% of Black voters backing Harris said their minds are made up.

The poll also shows a shift in voter enthusiasm.

"Enthusiasm has increased," CNN reports, with 79% of Black voters saying they would definitely vote, compared to 68% in June.

Harris’ support remains particularly strong among older Black voters, as she leads by 87 points among Black voters aged 60 and over.

However, her lead narrows to 55 points among Black voters under 60, where Trump’s support is higher. Among Black voters under 40, 22% back Trump.

Harris’s progress is visible even among Black voters who view Biden’s presidency negatively. Among the 40% of Black voters who think Biden’s presidency has been a failure, Harris still holds a 65% to 31% lead over Trump.

The poll further indicates that Harris is generally viewed more favourably by Black voters compared to voters overall.

"Nearly 8 in 10 Black voters view Harris favourably," the poll notes, with Black Democrats offering slightly more positive views than the rest of the party. Black non-Democrats also view Harris more positively than independents and Republicans from other racial groups.

When it comes to the economy, Black voters mirror the concerns of the broader electorate, with 41% naming the economy as their top issue.

Among Democratic Black voters, this number rises to 42%, showing they are more likely to prioritise the economy than other Democratic voters, who are more focused on issues like democracy and reproductive rights.

The poll also highlights widespread dissatisfaction with the political system.

"Nearly 9 in 10 Black voters believe the US political system needs major reforms," the poll shows.

A significant portion of Black voters (85%) also feel that the federal government doesn’t do enough for Black Americans, with many believing it does too much for White Americans.