Russia's war bleeding into Asia? The threat of North Korea-Russia Alliance to Global security

Seoul's Defence Minister Kim Yong-hyun announced that it was highly likely that 6 North Korean officers were killed in a Ukrainian missile strike near Donetsk on October 3. On 8th October, Ukraine announced that it struck a Russian weapons arsenal – containing missiles and munitions supplied by North Korea – in the Bryansk border region.

Seoul’s Defence Minister Kim Yong-hyun announced that it was highly likely that 6 North Korean officers were killed in a Ukrainian missile strike near Donetsk on October 3. On 8th October, Ukraine announced that it struck a Russian weapons arsenal – containing missiles and munitions supplied by North Korea – in the Bryansk border region.

On October 18, South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) further added that North Korea has shipped 1,500 special forces troops to Russia's far east for training and acclimatising at local military bases and will likely be deployed for combat in the war in Ukraine. An Associated Press reviewed report added that the troops were given Russian military uniforms, weapons and forged identification documents.

Earlier this week, Kyiv's Defense Intelligence Directorate had said that almost 11,000 North Korean infantry troops are training in eastern Russia. If this wasn’t enough, a dozen North Korean soldiers are believed to have deserted the Russian front line near Ukraine's northern border.
Fire and smoke: North Korea’s Russia connection

Various conclusions come to mind: that North Korea is helping Russia fight its war in Ukraine; that it is testing its new weaponry like the KN-23 ballistic missiles in a third-man’s war; and that it’s trying to provide direct battle experience for its soldiers.

North Korea has refuted allegations of being a major weapons supplier to Russia, especially those used in its invasion of Ukraine. So has Russia. Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov recently dismissed a reporter’s question on ‘North Korea sending its military on the special military operation’ for being ‘fake news’.

But Ukrainian and South Korean intelligence reports tell a different story. Based on recovered weapon remnants in Ukraine, it’s argued that North Korea has shipped ballistic missiles, anti-tank rockets, and artillery rounds to Russia in over 13,000 containers since August last year. At a press conference with French foreign minister, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy shared Ukrainian intelligence pointing to North Korea’s involvement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict. Reports of recent increase in production and testing of artillery and cruise missiles by North Korea also raise concerns about preparation for further shipments to Russia.

The Russia-North Korea alliance

Moscow and Pyongyang have been allies since North Korea’s founding after World War II and relations between the two countries have grown closer since Moscow began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In March, Russia used its veto to end UN tracking of Pyongang’s violations. While North Korea was grateful for the help, it didn’t take. On Oct 16, the U.S., South Korea, and Japan announced a new multinational team to monitor the enforcement of sanctions against North Korea.

In June, Vladimir Putin visited North Korea for the first time in 24 years and signed a mutual defense agreement with Kim Jong Un. Last week, the North Korean leader greeted Russian President Vladimir Putin on his birthday, calling him his "closest comrade".

What is behind Russia’s proximity to North Korea

Since its invasion of Ukraine, Russia had made overtures to improve relations with Western adversaries in the region – China, Iran, and North Korea. It has used economic ties, defense relations, and overt international support to pull them all closer.

Russia’s growing proximity to North Korea is concerning for another reason. Russia already provides North Korea with technical assistance for R&D in advanced space and weapons technologies: nuclear-powered submarines, cruise and ballistic missiles, and military reconnaissance satellites. If Russia is helping north Korea with technological expertise in return for the alleged weapon supplies, the threat of a nuclear north Korea will become very real, very quickly.

And if that is the case, then this will pull the Western world, especially the U.S. in the rapidly escalating unrest in the Korean peninsula, with North and South Korea already at loggerheads.

While it also indicates a struggling Putin to mobilise more Russians to fight in Ukraine, the disturbing, but yet-to-be-confirmed news of North Korean involvement has elicited serious concern from UK, U.S., and NATO. Ukrainian foreign minister Andrii Sybiha highlighted that if the reports are true, “there is a huge risk of further escalation of the Russian aggression against Ukraine. It's a huge risk as it further intensifies and lets (the war) outgrow its current limits and (territorial) borders." French foreign minister Jean-Noel Barrot also raised concerns about the conflict reaching a “new additional escalation stage.”

If confirmed, this would be disastrous. International military alliances of this nature pose a serious threat to regional, and indeed, to global security. Ukrainian President Zelensky has gone on record to say that this would be ‘the first step to world war’. He may not be too far off in his analysis.