How pager blasts, Hamas chief killing have brought Middle East to brink of war

Israel-Hezbollah War: Even though the intensity of the hostilities has waxed and waned, there is no sign of a pause in the year-long war in Gaza. The pager blasts in Lebanon have further pushed the Middle East to the brink of a full-blown regional war.

In Short

• War shifts towards Lebanon border as Israel attacks Hezbollah
• Multiple explosions of pagers, walkie-talkies have killed 30 in Lebanon
• Iran deciding on scale and scope of its response after Hamas chief killing

"I believe that we are at the onset of a new phase in this war, and we need to adapt," Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said as a series of pager and walkie-talkie blasts in Lebanon further pushed the Middle East to the brink of a full-blown regional war. The latest development has the potential of escalating the war on many fronts, engulfing Lebanon, Iran, Yemen and the broader region, as the Israel-Gaza conflict nears a year.

Even though the intensity of the hostilities has waxed and waned, there is no sign of a pause in the year-long war in Gaza after terror outfit Hamas's attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.

However, the war's centre of gravity is now shifting towards northern Israel, which shares a border with south Lebanon. Lebanon's southern part is the stronghold of the Hezbollah terror group, which has been exchanging daily fire with Israel since the Gaza war started in solidarity with Hamas.

On Thursday, Israeli warplanes destroyed 100 rocket launchers as its military targeted Hezbollah sites. Cross-border strikes were also reported near the border.

ISRAEL-LEBANON WAR ON CARDS?

Israel has already started diverting its forces and resources towards the Lebanon border after multiple explosions of pagers and walkie-talkies of Hezbollah members killed over 30 and left nearly 3,000 injured.

The blast, believed to be a supply chain attack carried out by Israel's sophisticated spy agency Mossad, has ratcheted up tensions with Lebanon after weeks of an uneasy calm.

While Lebanon has described the attacks as a "serious violation of Lebanese sovereignty", Hezbollah has been more blunt, threatening a "just punishment" for Israel. In fact, it has already started rocket attacks on Israeli artillery positions.

The apparent sabotage attack came after months of targeted assassinations by Israel against senior Hezbollah leaders, including the group's top commander, Fuad Shukr.

The assassination was believed to be in retaliation for the killing of 12 children in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights in a Hezbollah drone strike.

However, Hezbollah, Iran's most powerful proxy in the Middle East, will be no pushovers and is considered to be more formidable than Hamas in the region. It boasts a vast weapons arsenal and has used drones to fire missiles deep inside Israeli territory.

IRAN SEETHING AFTER HAMAS CHIEF KILLING

Concerns have also been mounting regarding the threat of an open conflict between Israel and its bitter adversary Iran. Iran, which directly attacked Israel for the first time in April, has also vowed revenge after the pager blasts in Lebanon critically injured its envoy.

The incident has only fuelled Iran's anger following the assassination of Hamas's political wing chief Ismail Haniyeh in the Iranian capital, Tehran, in July, allegedly by Israel. The development was not only a body blow for Hamas, but also a big loss of face for Iran as Haniyeh was in Tehran for the inauguration of the new Iranian President.

While Iran has not yet retaliated following significant diplomatic pressure to avoid civilian casualties, experts said it was still deciding on the scale and scope of its response.

Iran, however, is well aware of Israel's military might. In April, following an Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy compound in Syria, Tehran launched 170 explosive-laden drones, 30 cruise missiles and more than 120 ballistic missiles toward Israel.

However, Israel, with help from the United States and other Arab nations, shot down many of the projectiles, some of which came from Yemen. Israel's much-vaunted Iron Dome air defence system has been the mainstay in warding off threats from Tehran and Iran-backed proxies.

NEGOTIATIONS STUCK

Such escalations in recent months have also complicated unsuccessful efforts by mediators like Egypt, Qatar and the US to negotiate a ceasefire in Gaza between Israel and Hamas.

Except for a one-week truce in November 2023, where 105 hostages were released to Israel in exchange for 240 Palestinian prisoners, months of behind-the-scenes negotiations have failed to secure a halt to the fighting.

The Gaza war has already killed over 41,000 Palestinians and displaced over 100,000.

The back-to-back assassinations of two top leaders of Iran's proxy forces, sabotage attacks in Lebanon, and missile attacks by Yemen's Houthis on Israel have acted as a catalyst of a wider Middle East conflict, which several experts have warned might turn into the Third World War.