Will JVP Become The Kingpin In Sri Lanka?

Sri Lankans Vote for New President Amid Economic Crisis

Sri Lankans are casting their votes today to elect the country’s 10th president, marking the first election since the devastating economic crisis of 2022. The crisis led to a national default, with severe food and fuel shortages that forced then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee in July 2022.

Incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who succeeded Rajapaksa, is seeking re-election. He faces challengers Anura Kumara Dissanayake from the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and Sajith Premadasa from the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB).

Dissanayake stands out as the JVP leader. His party has never held significant power and has previously led Marxist uprisings. Polls show he is currently the frontrunner in the election.

The JVP's momentum surged in 2022, following the country’s economic collapse, which triggered widespread shortages and inflation. This led to the Aragalaya protest movement, compelling Rajapaksa and his brother, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, to resign and flee the country.

Although no party took official leadership of the Aragalaya movement, the JVP played a prominent role in organizing protests and strikes. The power vacuum allowed Dissanayake to amplify calls for social justice and anti-corruption, transforming the JVP into a credible political force.

Meanwhile, the country’s largest ethnic minority, the Tamils, are divided in their electoral support amidst this intense four-way contest. Scarred by a long civil war and struggling in a crumbling economy, many Tamils lack faith that the election will bring positive change.

Tamils represent 12% of Sri Lanka’s 22 million population but have historically been sidelined in politics. Many believe candidates from the Sinhala majority cannot improve their situation.

“After the war, COVID, and the economic crisis, I have no hope,” said Paramasamy Thanabalasingam, a 62-year-old fisherman from Jaffna. He noted that traditional Tamil voting patterns have splintered among various factions. “The decision will be made by the majority Sinhala people, so I feel there won’t be any change,” he added.

The Sinhala majority advocates for the implementation of the 13th Amendment, which allows for devolution of powers to local governments in the north and east. However, successive administrations have failed to enact this, fearing it could lead to a separate Tamil state.

Tamils and parts of the international community have long called for accountability regarding alleged war crimes from the civil war. However, the JVP-led National People’s Power (NPP) has ruled out any investigations, with Dissanayake stating they won’t pursue punishment for rights violations.

Since its passage in 1987, the 13th Amendment has not been fully realized. It aimed to devolve police and land powers to provincial councils, but no president has moved forward due to fears of political backlash.

The JVP has consistently opposed any Indian intervention in Sri Lanka. Recently, they promised to cancel the Adani Group's wind power project if elected, citing threats to energy sovereignty. Dissanayake affirmed, “Yes. We will definitely cancel it.”

Despite being a minor player in parliament, Dissanayake’s popularity is on the rise. His campaign focuses on a promise to eradicate corruption, resonating with many Sri Lankans. The election is shaping up to be a tight race among Wickremesinghe, Premadasa, and Dissanayake.