Third-Party Candidates Pose Potential Disruption in Key Battleground States

As the 2024 presidential election nears, the presence of third-party candidates could play a pivotal role in several key battleground states. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in tight races in many of these states, with even small percentages of votes shifting to third-party contenders having the potential to alter the outcome.

Washington, D.C. — As the 2024 presidential election nears, the presence of third-party candidates could play a pivotal role in several key battleground states. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in tight races in many of these states, with even small percentages of votes shifting to third-party contenders having the potential to alter the outcome.

Wisconsin: A State Defined by Slim Margins

In 2020, President Biden won Wisconsin by just 0.6%—a razor-thin margin of roughly 20,000 votes. Now, all eyes are on third-party candidates Jill Stein, Chase Oliver, and Cornel West, who are all set to appear on the state’s ballot. Each contender successfully overcame challenges from national Democrats to gain ballot access. Wisconsin is considered the biggest wildcard due to its history of narrow victories and the memory of Stein’s 2016 performance, which drew enough progressive votes away from Clinton to help Trump secure the state. Despite Kennedy endorsing Trump, his name still appearing on the ballot poses a risk of vote siphoning from either side.

Georgia: A Shifting Landscape

In 2020, Biden’s victory margin in Georgia was 0.23%, with a difference of fewer than 12,000 votes. However, Trump has managed to regain ground, holding an 8-point lead in the state according to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ average. Democrats, who once saw Georgia trending blue, are now less confident, especially with more than a million voters already casting early ballots. Stein is not expected to make a substantial impact here, but Oliver, with connections to Tennessee and his 2020 run in Georgia’s 5th District, could attract enough protest votes to create complications for both campaigns.

Arizona: A Contentious Battle

Biden won Arizona in 2020 by just 0.3%, or around 10,000 votes. This year, election analysts expect a slightly quicker call for the state, but with Stein and Oliver on the ballot, the result remains uncertain. Recent polling indicates that Stein is gaining traction among Muslim American voters, while Oliver’s candidacy slightly depresses turnout for both Trump and Harris. With such narrow margins at play, Arizona could once again find itself at the centre of election drama.

Pennsylvania: Keystone State at the Heart of the Battle

Pennsylvania saw Biden’s largest victory margin among key battlegrounds in 2020, with a 1.2% lead translating to around 80,000 votes. This year, Harris holds a narrow 2-point advantage, according to a recent Washington Post-Schar School poll, but the fluidity of the race leaves no room for complacency. Trump has been polling close behind, and both campaigns are investing heavily. Stein and Oliver occupy 1% to 3% of the vote in aggregate surveys, creating a delicate balancing act in a state where every percentage point could make a difference. Democrats have aggressively reminded voters of 2016, when Trump won Pennsylvania by a slim 0.7% margin and Stein took 49,000 votes.

Michigan: A Flashback to 2016

Michigan was the site of a narrow Biden win in 2020, with a victory margin of 2.8%, or around 154,000 votes. However, third-party candidates are likely to be a factor once again. Stein, whose 2016 campaign siphoned off enough left-leaning votes to aid Trump’s win, is running on a strong anti-war platform amid the Biden administration’s response to the Gaza conflict. Harris is struggling to gain traction with Arab American voters, many of whom are turning to Stein or have become disillusioned with the administration. The stakes are high in Michigan, where the Democratic National Committee is focused on ensuring Stein’s 2016 impact doesn’t repeat itself.

North Carolina: A Test for West

In 2020, Trump won North Carolina by 1.3%, a margin of about 74,000 votes. Cornel West’s presence in the Tar Heel State introduces another variable in this closely contested battleground. Despite a lack of visible third-party enthusiasm among voters, West’s legal battle to appear on the ballot as the Justice for All candidate has earned him a dedicated, if small, following among progressive and working-class voters. His appeal is strongest among young, left-leaning voters across racial lines, making him a potential disruptor in this tightly held state.

Nevada: A Libertarian Wild Card

In 2020, Biden narrowly won Nevada by 2.4%, or around 33,000 votes. This year, Oliver is the sole third-party candidate on the ballot in the Silver State, after Stein and Kennedy’s names were successfully removed. While Libertarian candidates have historically drawn votes away from Republican nominees, Oliver’s support remains uncertain due to discontent with both Trump and Harris. At around 1% in national polling, Oliver’s candidacy could still have an outsized impact in a state where a small shift in votes can lead to unexpected outcomes.

Analysis: Third-Party Influence and Its Implications

Third-party candidates often struggle to capture significant support in U.S. elections, but in highly contested battleground states, even a small diversion of votes can be crucial. The presence of Stein, West, Oliver, and the lingering ballot appearance of Kennedy adds complexity to the 2024 race. In states like Wisconsin and Michigan, which were instrumental to Trump’s 2016 victory, Democrats remain wary of progressive vote splitting. Meanwhile, Libertarian-leaning candidates like Oliver could siphon votes from both major parties, particularly from conservative-leaning voters disenchanted with Trump.

This election cycle, the dynamics of third-party candidates are compounded by deep voter dissatisfaction and increased polarization. With major candidates running neck and neck in several states, third-party contenders could become the decisive factor in a race that may once again hinge on a few thousand votes in critical battlegrounds.